88 UTG+1 turn decision

[bisonbison]

This is my fifth or so hand at this table, and I don't have a solid read on the preflop raiser in this hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, UTG calls... HERO's action?


Obviously I'm not folding.

[SnakeRat]

I put MP2 on a big pair with club, or overcards with 1 or 2 big clubs.

UTG probably has the Ace or King of clubs, or a smaller set.

I would 3-bet.

When you are ahead you make them pay through the nose to outdraw you, when you are behind they will probably cap to let you know, and you might even fill up on the river.

I think its fairly unlikely you are behind either of them.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG probably has the Ace or King of clubs, or a smaller set.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would love to know just what specifically it is that UTG has done that makes you think a set is a possible hand?

[Ponks]

I think I'd just call the turn raise and then call the river if you dont fill up. I put this guy on something like AcKc or AcQc or possibly Ac8c and I think he turned the flush. Lots of aggressive players will play their flush draw like that.

Ponks

[SnakeRat]

Stayed in the hand...

Passive players could play a set this way, obviously its the least likely of the possible hands I mentioned.

You are implying its impossible for him to have a set..

[Brian]

3-bet. Even if one of them has a Flush, you're getting 2:1 on your money as a 3:1 underdog. Not THAT bad. And I wouldn't expect to be against the Flush that often here.

-Brian

[SnakeRat]

I agree with you most good aggressive players would play 2 big clubs like that, but I think its more likely he has 1 big club, and would play it the same.

[bisonbison]

3-bet. Even if one of them has a Flush, you're getting 2:1 on your money as a 3:1 underdog. Not THAT bad. And I wouldn't expect to be against the Flush that often here.


That makes quite a bit of sense. Playing scared without a read.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Stayed in the hand...

Passive players could play a set this way,

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, these certainly are overly compelling reasons to think set.

[ QUOTE ]
You are implying its impossible for him to have a set..

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, "impossible" might be a little strong. Maybe not.

[SnakeRat]

I didn't say he should "think set".

"I said UTG probably has the Ace or King of clubs, or a smaller set."

Thanks for your valuable contribution to this thread.

[The Dude]

The Dude abides.

[Trix]

3Bet, this will be a big pair often enough, especially with the other guy coldcalling.

[Saborion]

With only one player to act behind you, the pre-flop raiser, is it a good move to check to him? If you know he'll bet, it is, but if he has something like AK-AQ, will be really bet when last to act against 4 opponents on a board that looks like that?

Is the gain of a check-raise woth the risk of giving a free card?

[sfer]

3-bet. Slow down if he caps. I usually try for the turn checkraise too when he 3-bets the flop. I pulled a checkraise trifecta last night. I r00le.

[Luke]

I'd 3-bet. The most likely hand for MP2 is something like AA or KK with a club. Of course could also have A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif or A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif.

God only knows what UTG holds. Maybe he has a small flush, went for the turn checkraise but chickened out when it was 2 bets back to him. Or maybe he holds 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif Xx. But who knows, he's only called up to this point and we don't have any read on him.

Keep in mind that even if you're behind to the flush, you still have lots of outs to fill up with your TOP SET .

So if you couple the chances that you are ahead with the times that you are behind but fill up, I think you can 3-bet here against 2 opponents.

If MP2 caps I'd just call down.

Luke

[colgin]

Three-bet. I need to see him cap it AND a scare card to fall on the river (e.g., a /images/graemlins/club.gif or a four) before I think about slowing down with top set.

All the best,

Colgin

[aas]

3-bet.

Most of the time you will have the best hand on this turn. The times you don't, you have outs to fill up (although not the nuts on this board).

[StellarWind]

You have to worry about UTG. He has bad position with respect to the PFR and he might not have found his moment to raise a flush. Still the odds are he is drawing or donating.

I'd guess you are about even money to be ahead right now. You also have ten outs to fill counterbalanced by about 15 death cards (including the two unknown cards that make a new top set). At 2-1 this looks like a good bet and I would reraise.

This hand has jackpot potential.

[Keats13]

I think you have to 3-bet the turn here, for all of the reasons previously listed (very likely ahead, drawing very live the times you're behind).

However, I really don't agree with the flop check/raise. First of all, you really don't want this to get checked through. You have the current nuts, and they are vulnerable. Also, with this hand and this board, I'm not really interested in building a pot. I'd bet into the PFR and hope he raises me to force the other players to call 2 bets cold. How they react to that will define their hands much better than their willingness to call two separate small bets.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I put MP2 on a big pair with club, or overcards with 1 or 2 big clubs.

UTG probably has the Ace or King of clubs, or a smaller set.

I would 3-bet.

When you are ahead you make them pay through the nose to outdraw you, when you are behind they will probably cap to let you know, and you might even fill up on the river.

I think its fairly unlikely you are behind either of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything here except that silly little tail I put in italics /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[SA125]

My long answer is what everyone else said - having the best hand, having outs to a fl, others on big clubs or big pairs, etc.

My short answer is the old saying about a playing set - if you don't lose a lot of money when you're cracked with it, you're not playing it right.

3 bet the set.

[Jdanz]

thought:

do you really want anyone to face 2 bets cold on the flop? a flush draw is still going to call and everything else is so far behind you want them to call. you want everyone in here except the draw you can't get out.

Now i don't think this changes much other then you'd rather everyone see two small bets then two cold on the flop.

-JDanz

[papawawa]

can you explain your math in a little more detail. I figure he only has only 10 outs to fill the river . . . what else is there?

[SA125]

This is funny. I'm like a magnet for rock throwers. Jdanz, my friend. The posters question is about ....Turn decision.

What part of my response indicates I'm referring to the flop, as oppossed to answering his question about the turn?

[Keats13]

I think your reply was meant for me.

I addressed the flop because the turn had already been addressed pretty thoroughly, and I had a question about a different aspect of the hand.

I prefer betting the flop because the check/raise
-risks the flop getting checked through
-gives you just about no information about your opponents' hands

If you bet and MP2 raises, a cold-call or two probably indicates that there is a flush draw out.

Based on the response to your flop bet (does MP2 raise? are there cold-callers?), you have a lot more info and several options. You can 3-bet, or just call and then either bet out or check/raise the turn depending on the previous action and what falls on the turn.

[ZootMurph]

You have 2 people in now for 2 bets each on the turn. A total of 16.5 BB in the pot. I would guess that UTG has two overcards with at least one club, a middle overpair (99, TT), or he is smooth calling the turn with a flush (doubtful). I keep seeing A/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif in my head though... MP2 has AK, AQ, KQ/images/graemlins/club.gif or big pair. Chances are below 50% he is sitting on a flush. In any case, they both must have either a flush or a big club. I think you should just call the flop, and see what the turn brings. A 3 bet won't get anyone out, and is putting more money in the pot if you are behind (although you have 10 outs against a non straight flush hand).

If the board pairs up (preferably the 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, LOL), you can go hog wild. If a fourth club, you can make a crying call to a single bet or fold to two bets, as it is pretty certain that ONE of those two has the flush. If no club or pairing on the river, check/call.

I'm just curious if the end result was that UTG had A/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[Jdanz]

it was and all i was trying to get across was that the hero would rather see people faced with one bet twice then two bets once, this in no way means i disagree with your assesment of what the flop play shoud be, obviusly we don't want this checked through, just saying that optimally we want people without draws staying in and people with draws aren't getting out.

-JDanz

[StellarWind]

That's all there is. You have 10 outs against 44 cards (not 46, the flush holder cannot have your outs). That is 34-10 = 3.4-1. Brian rounded off which is reasonable given the general uncertainty about our opponent's holdings.

Notice that our opponents probably have more odds than we do (clubs, fours, set draw for overpair). Our chance of winning is probably somewhat less than our chance of currently being ahead.

[StellarWind]

UTG could easily have a set. He limped UTG with 55 or 22. On the flop he gleefully slowplayed as you guys bet and raised, planning to checkraise the turn. The turn card was a double-threat nightmare and he wisely decided maybe he already has enough action without reraising /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Maybe you and I would play it differently, but many people play this way and in this specific case UTG has done nothing I would strongly criticize.

[chief444]

I agree with the majority of the others here. I would 3-bet. I would expect to be up against a high pocket pair including one club as often or more often than AK-A10 or clubs. I think either would play the same and with the other opponent calling along and a fair amount of outs if you are behind a flush I like the 3-bet here.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet and MP2 raises, a cold-call or two probably indicates that there is a flush draw out.


[/ QUOTE ]
If you check/raise it will appear to your opponents that you may be pumping a flush draw yourself and you will likely be 3-bet anyway, at least by an overpair. So I think check/raising does a lot more for you here including getting more money in the pot as well disguises your hand as the majority of made hands (two pair, top pair, etc) would probably bet out hoping to be raised.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
and I don't have a solid read on the preflop raiser in this hand

[/ QUOTE ]
This is important. Let's turn this around:

I have AA and raise two limpers, one loose and one tight, the blinds play. The flop comes 852 two clubs. I have a club. I bet and the tight limper checkraises me and caps my 3-bet. The loose limper sticks like glue through the whole process. Three to the turn. Now a third club comes that also makes a wheel and the tight limper bets out.

I raise with my one pair and nut flush draw because ... I'm a complete LAG idiot. There is no possible hand the tight limper could have that I am ahead of anymore. Don't get me started on what the loose limper has been calling with all this time. I'm strictly drawing at this point.

My point is that depending on who we are playing against this turn 3-bet may not be such a good idea. Now I admit that thinking players are scarce. But players who are instinctively terrified of 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif are probably a large majority. Maybe MP2 was not that likely to have started with two big clubs, but for many, many players nothing else is good enough to raise the turn. Most players are *too* afraid of scare cards and strong betting. We are playing for this one to be fearless and senseless.

[PokerNoob]

Fearless and Senseless on a coordinated board requires a bit of a read. Not to say you don't get them, I took down a 60 GBP pot against one the other night when my AKo TPTK held in a very similar situation, including the coldcaller. However, the boat outs do count for something vs the made flush and whatever coldcaller is coldcalling with. I think I throw in one more raise here and checkcall the river unimproved. I would hate it for a club to hit the river (except the 8 of course) and UTG to bet out.

[SA125]

My mistake. I didn't mean to jump on you. I couldn't understand where you were coming from and tried to politely say so.

I had another guy tell me to kiss his ass in another post where I made a joke about a silly mistake he made. I try not to engage in that stuff in the forum and tried to play it down, but I've never taken kindly to being talked to like that in public by strangers. Guess I'm just getting jumpy, but that's no excuse. Sorry for directing that at you.

[bisonbison]

Let's see:

Hero calls, cause hero got freaked in the face of a lot of aggression. River is the queen of non-flush, hero checks, villain bets, UTG folds, hero calls.

Villain has AKo with the king of flush cards. Hero drags the pot.