Solid TAG caps the flop, what now?

[DonT77]

2 Weeks ago, 2/4 at the Monte Carlo in Vegas, mostly tourists who haven't played the game much except one guy across the table from me who is Tight/Aggressive and has not displayed any mistakes yet.

I'm dealt AJs in UTG+1 and raise. It is folded to the other decent player in CO and he calls. 2 players see the flop of
J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, he raises, I re-raise, and he caps.

The turn is 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Do you bet or check here?

[sthief09]

decent players don't usually cold-call an UTG raise in the CO when no one else has entered the pot, unless they have a huge hand like AA or KK. I'm not saying he definitely has AA or KK. so he's either not as good as you're saying or he has a monster. I'd have a tough time giving him credit for JJ, but he might be one of those people who doesn't think it's worth a 3-bet.

I'd probably lead the turn. if he raises, I wouldn't call the river if I haven't improved.

[papawawa]

If he had the bullets, why wouldn't he reraise preflop? Deception purposes? Slowplaying not likely. If he was playing "correctly", his play would only be justified with jack in the box. Or like sthief said, he's just not as good as you give him credit for.

[nepenthe]

Smells like a higher overpair, a smaller set like 88 or 44, or he's pumping a flush draw. My money is on a set, but I c/c the turn and river unless the flush gets there, in which case I'm really out of options and I fold. Make notes on him if you get to showdown, as his HU style may be different from his usual style.

[cardcounter0]

I would fold. What is the point of getting a "read" on a player as a "TAG that hasn't made a mistake", if you are going to ignore that and continue to call and give him money when he is betting like he has the nuts?

Would a mistake free TAG be capping here if he couldn't beat TPTK? You think he is chasing the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flush?

[TheGrifter]

One of the most common mistakes I see in low limit live casino play is people jamming the pot with draws when heads up. I think it's more likely that he has 4 diamonds here than an overpair.

Bet the turn.

[MoreWineII]

I think a smallish set seems likely. I seldom like check-calling, but I think it's the right play here.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
If he had the bullets, why wouldn't he reraise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

deception to a point, but I don't mind the blinds coming along. this is actually a great spot to cold-call with AA or KK, as long as you're not against astute opponents.

[sthief09]

and what about his 5 outs? he won't be against a set often enough to justify folding the turn.

[sfer]

Monte Carlo caps the betting heads-up?

EDIT: Josh would go 5 bets here with a backdoor flush draw and two overcards. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DonT77]

Thanks for the input everybody. I too had him on an overpair or a set, and I was thinking that he was not getting the correct number of callers to raise me on a flush draw / free card attempt especially after he put in the 4th bet on the flop.

So I checked the turn, and he checked behind me! (I gave him the wtf look and he smiled.) After a rag fell on the river, I bet and he folded - almost surely on a flush draw.

Now I ask you, was the original flop raise a good play on his part - because if I did not re-raise him then he would have got to see the river for just one more small bet even though the most he could get was only one caller?

Having re-raised him like I did, was it smart for this guy to cap the flop because he did get me to check the turn or was he wrong to throw in the 4th bet knowing that he was on draw and probably beaten?

[DonT77]

sfer - I can't say for sure that Monte Carlo has caps when heads up, but after the 4th bet on the flop I would have just called anyway.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
one guy across the table from me who is Tight/Aggressive and has not displayed any mistakes yet

[/ QUOTE ]

I take it you have been watching this guy play for a little while but you don't know him well.

An important and rarely stated mathematical principle applies here.

He could be a very fine T/A player. In that case you would probably see over a short period of time exactly what you saw: no obvious errors. He could also be a decent player who has read a hold'em primer and plays fairly T/A but has many flaws in his game. You might have spotted an error before now but often you won't.

Even though the fine player is more likely to appear to play correctly, the odds heavily favor him being only a decent player. Decent players heavily outnumber fine players in LL games. Even though most decent players would have given themselves away by now, the ones that don't still outnumber the rare fine players.

The PF coldcall is further evidence of this. Yes it could be a rare and tricky play by a good player with AA/KK, but the odds are it was a commonplace mistake that mere decent players make in droves.

Most aggressive players will reraise any PP they play in this situation (LP, no callers yet) in an attempt to isolate you. That didn't happen which is a tell-tale for a suited hand that wants the blinds to play.

Heads up with position a flopped set is likely to just call in hopes of raising on a later street. AA is also likely to just call given that it played tricky preflop. Meanwhile, aggressive players seem to auto-raise draws in this situation as a semibluff and free-card play. Capping a flush draw is not silly if it finally buys a free card. Since he expects you to have a one-pair hand this is not an unreasonable idea on his part. It's even better if it enables him to bluff on a later street with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and fold your AK.

There is no guarentee, but all the signs seem to favor betting the turn. Now you are representing top set and he may well not raise when he should. The cost of being wrong could easily be zero.

If he calls the turn you should check-call a blank on the river because you are playing him for either a better hand or a busted draw. It's also possible he has the same hand as you.

[DonT77]

"I take it you have been watching this guy play for a little while but you don't know him well."

Exactly.


"Decent players heavily outnumber fine players in LL games."

Totally agree, especially in live games.


The rest of your post sounds like good analysis/advice - thanks for your efforts.