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Old 08-11-2002, 05:11 PM
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Default Flop situation

Here is a situation that comes up often for me when playing Hold'em, and I want to address it correctly.

The situation is this: (to simplify, let's assume that the SB folds, and his bet is taken as the rake)

1) Regardless of whether or not I have a quality hand in EP or am in a steal position, I raise and wind up isolating the BB.

2) The flop does not help me and the BB checks.

3) Given that there are 4 small bets in the pot, when evaluating whether or not to bet, should I be thinking:

A) I am getting 4-1 on my bet, so if he folds 20% of the time, a bet is surely profitable.

B) He is getting 5-1 on his call, so if he folds 16.7 % of the time, a bet is profitable.

Which is the correct way to evaluate the situation when I am betting as a bluff or near bluff? A or B?
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Old 08-11-2002, 05:21 PM
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Default Re: Flop situation

If you lost every time that he called you, then a bet is profitable if he folds more than 20% of the time.

0.8*(-1) + 0.2*(4) = 0.
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