Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-11-2002, 05:11 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Flop situation



Here is a situation that comes up often for me when playing Hold'em, and I want to address it correctly.


The situation is this: (to simplify, let's assume that the SB folds, and his bet is taken as the rake)


1) Regardless of whether or not I have a quality hand in EP or am in a steal position, I raise and wind up isolating the BB.


2) The flop does not help me and the BB checks.


3) Given that there are 4 small bets in the pot, when evaluating whether or not to bet, should I be thinking:


A) I am getting 4-1 on my bet, so if he folds 20% of the time, a bet is surely profitable.


B) He is getting 5-1 on his call, so if he folds 16.7 % of the time, a bet is profitable.


Which is the correct way to evaluate the situation when I am betting as a bluff or near bluff? A or B?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-11-2002, 05:21 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Flop situation



If you lost every time that he called you, then a bet is profitable if he folds more than 20% of the time.


0.8*(-1) + 0.2*(4) = 0.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:47 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.