How not to Play AK? - Page 3

Easystreet · #1 12-20-2005, 11:10 AM

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Grunch.

So many hands....

Hand 1

Raise the turn. He may think you've already caught the flush and only call. If he 3-bets, call and fold with that river.

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Geez, this is the second suggestion to raise the turn. Since when do we raise on the turn when we don't have an equity edge?

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I have now changed my mind I think you are right, we should call the turn and not raise. I also think though that if hero has decided to see showdown on the turn then raising is better than calling.

I now think that calling turn and folding river is the correct play.

WalkAmongUs · #2 12-20-2005, 11:25 AM

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Grunch.

So many hands....

Hand 1

Raise the turn. He may think you've already caught the flush and only call. If he 3-bets, call and fold with that river.

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Geez, this is the second suggestion to raise the turn. Since when do we raise on the turn when we don't have an equity edge?

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I have now changed my mind I think you are right, we should call the turn and not raise. I also think though that if hero has decided to see showdown on the turn then raising is better than calling.

I now think that calling turn and folding river is the correct play.

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raising the flop and betting the turn is the easiest way to find out where you are for as little chips as possible. You risk 2 BB at most to see the hand to showdown. Unless something odd happens, you should be getting roughly 4:1 odds for seeing the hand to showdown and you should win this hand well over >20% of the time either at showdown or with your opponent folding.

Edited to say: you would obviously fold if your opponent reraises you on the flop and bets the turn. But those times he doesn't you should win over 20% of the time.

the only time this would'nt work is against an uber-tricky maniac or when you and your opponent have super-5,000 hand reads on each other and he knows you'd do this with overcards. Both of these cases are pretty rare, so you might as well raise the flop.

davelin · #3 12-20-2005, 11:40 AM

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raising the flop and betting the turn is the easiest way to find out where you are for as little chips as possible. You risk 2 BB at most to see the hand to showdown. Unless something odd happens, you should be getting roughly 4:1 odds for seeing the hand to showdown and you should win this hand well over >20% of the time either at showdown or with your opponent folding.

Edited to say: you would obviously fold if your opponent reraises you on the flop and bets the turn. But those times he doesn't you should win over 20% of the time.

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Huh?! You have a OOP capper and a leader on the flop. The times you get to see the showdown for 2BB is about never. For another 1SB you can GUARANTEE yourself a showdown and not worry about spewing 2BB just to see yourself fold on the turn.

#4 12-20-2005, 12:05 PM

Grunch: Very briefly...

#1 Fold River (you already know that)
#2 Fine
#3 Turn bet won't protect your hand as the pot is so big. Your stuck calling to the end like you did.
#4 You HAVE to bet the turn here. You have top pair, top kick and the nut flush draw vs four opponents in a relatively small pot. You CANNOT give anyone a card cheaper than full price. Who knows, someone with a gut shot might even fold.

Pedigree · #5 12-20-2005, 01:42 PM

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Hand #2

After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

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I'd like to talk about this hand and specifically why so many are advising a river bet. Why? Thanks...

davelin · #6 12-20-2005, 01:51 PM

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Hand #2

After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

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I'd like to talk about this hand and specifically why so many are advising a river bet. Why? Thanks...

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We got TPTK and everyone has shown weakness on turn and river.

WalkAmongUs · #7 12-20-2005, 01:56 PM

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Hand #2

After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

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I'd like to talk about this hand and specifically why so many are advising a river bet. Why? Thanks...

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UTG+1 would have to be retarded to have a better hand than you and risk getting it checked through on both the turn AND the river (both missing big bets and letting flush draw have a free card).

Bet the river because when he checks it through on both the big streets, the odds you have a better hand than him go WAY up.

Pedigree · #8 12-20-2005, 02:16 PM

So you're putting him on JJ or TT I presume? Would he play the flop like that with those hands? I'm not sure he would. What if he has AA?

Pedigree · #9 12-20-2005, 03:45 PM

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Hand #2

After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

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OK - let me tell you why I think betting the river is wrong. Hopefully somebody will argue with me. We all know that in order to bet the river in last position you have to have the best hand the majority of time (or more than that because you fear the check raise).

There's no possible hand UTG+1 could have played correctly here. In my opinion, the most likely hand is AK. JJ and TT are possible, but no more so than AA. There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet. The flop action obviously scared him ... the third club and second overcard will terrify him. It's possible he had AA and got scared by the flop action. But if he has AA he's calling your river bet every time.

A river bet is -EV. If I'm wrong, I hope somebody corrects me.

jrz1972 · #10 12-20-2005, 03:55 PM

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There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet.

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The average Party .5/1 unknown will call the river unflinchingly with either of those hands.

I think this is where you're going wrong. You're assuming your opponents have the same calling standards you do and are playing rationally and thoughfully, as you are. You are wrong about this. Villain has already showed that he isn't playing rationally; like you said yourself, no matter what hand he flips over, we already know he misplayed it. Why do you automatically assume that a guy who butchered his hand on either the flop or turn will suddenly wake up and play sanely on the river?

(FWIW, I agree that AK is the most likely hand for villain in the sense that AK has been played the least badly out of villain's possible range. We want to bet the river to grab an extra half-bet from the straggler).

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