$11's ITM call w/ Q9o (3 handed)

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Here is a hand from a respected poster on this forum. I was reviewing his hand history and questioned his play here. He said it would be horrible to not call here, but I felt the call was not so good (in fact, I was not fond of the 3xbb pf raise either). What do you all think? Please say why you like or do not like his call or his initial pf raise.

Hero has a read: villain came over the top of an earlier pf ITM raise that hero made.

Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 4: qwzej (1495)
Seat 7: HERO (2785)
Seat 9: Flindric (3720)
Flindric posts small blind (100)
qwzej posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9s, Qh ]
HERO raises (600) to 600
Flindric folds.
qwzej raises (1295) to 1495
qwzej is all-In.
HERO calls (895)
Creating Main Pot with $3090 with qwzej

Results in White <font color="white">
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, 8d, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3090 |
Board: [ 4h 8d Qc Td 2h ]
qwzej balance 0, lost 1495 [ Js Ks ] [ high card king -- Ks,Qc,Js,Td,8d ]
HERO balance 4380, bet 1495, collected 3090, net +1595 [ 9s Qh ] [ a pair of queens -- Qh,Qc,Td,9s,8d ]
Flindric balance 3620, lost 100 (folded)
</font>

[lorinda]

Deleted, I thought we were the short stack.

Lori

[OatmealJoe]

The call seems fine. With 2195 in the pot and 895 to call, you are getting about 2.5:1 to call. On the actual hand, you are slightly better than 2:1 to win, so even seeing the opponents cards you should call.

The small stack will likely have a wide range of pushing hands.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

bump

Not a big fan of the pf raise, but you must call unless the shortstack is an absolute rock. Even then the odds might require a call.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a hand from a respected poster on this forum. I was reviewing his hand history and questioned his play here. He said it would be horrible to not call here, but I felt the call was not so good (in fact, I was not fond of the 3xbb pf raise either). What do you all think? Please say why you like or do not like his call or his initial pf raise.

Hero has a read: villain came over the top of an earlier pf ITM raise that hero made.

Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 4: qwzej (1495)
Seat 7: HERO (2785)
Seat 9: Flindric (3720)
Flindric posts small blind (100)
qwzej posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9s, Qh ]
HERO raises (600) to 600
Flindric folds.
qwzej raises (1295) to 1495
qwzej is all-In.
HERO calls (895)
Creating Main Pot with $3090 with qwzej

Results in White <font color="white">
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, 8d, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3090 |
Board: [ 4h 8d Qc Td 2h ]
qwzej balance 0, lost 1495 [ Js Ks ] [ high card king -- Ks,Qc,Js,Td,8d ]
HERO balance 4380, bet 1495, collected 3090, net +1595 [ 9s Qh ] [ a pair of queens -- Qh,Qc,Td,9s,8d ]
Flindric balance 3620, lost 100 (folded)
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought more about this situation this morning. Hero's reasoning to call was that Q9o is something like 45% vs any two (I don't remember the exact %) and getting 2.5:1 pot odds. Intuitively this makes sense. But you can't put villain on any two b/c hero raised 1st. Therefore, villain must have a stronger hand. If hero limped and villain pushed, calling with Q9o w/ 2.5:1 pot odds definitely makes sense, but not a push by villain over hero's 3xbb raise, IMO. Any thoughts?

[Sciolist]

I think this is a simple call. Hero is getting his 1:2.5 to call, and the only hands that are better than 1:2.5 over his Q9 are 99, QT, QJ, QK, QA, QQ, KK, AA. The big queen hands are also only off by a few percent of odds to call here.

The shortstack meanwhile is going to be making this move with a wide variety of hands now that he's ITM and aiming to take a shot at first. He could easily be on any pair, Ax or big kings as well, not to mention total trash if he's stupid, and to be fair, most people in the $11s are stupid. Sadly, I'm at work or I'd work out what kind of range he'd play to see if you'd want to make this call with, but I'm pretty sure that the range has to be very, very small for this to be a bad play.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a simple call. Hero is getting his 1:2.5 to call, and the only hands that are better than 1:2.5 over his Q9 are 99, QT, QJ, QK, QA, QQ, KK, AA. The big queen hands are also only off by a few percent of odds to call here.

The shortstack meanwhile is going to be making this move with a wide variety of hands now that he's ITM and aiming to take a shot at first. He could easily be on any pair, Ax or big kings as well, not to mention total trash if he's stupid, and to be fair, most people in the $11s are stupid. Sadly, I'm at work or I'd work out what kind of range he'd play to see if you'd want to make this call with, but I'm pretty sure that the range has to be very, very small for this to be a bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you're missing any pocket pair, and Ax and some Kx (x=T+) from his range... all of which Q9o is a dog to...

If you know how to run these #'s would you please do it for me after work? Thanks.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

OK, I went to an internet poker calculator and ran some scenarios. Q9o vs any pocket pair, AT+, etc. Because of the pot odds of 2.5:1, Q9o would win better than 2.5:1 times against most hands. The only hands that villain could have, which Q9o would lose to more than 2.5:1 was TT-AA.

So my next question is how do you made this decision in the heat of a game... ie I had to run this through a calculator which took a few minutes, but I don't have time to do this during a game???

[Sciolist]

You're underdog to pocket pairs, Ax and Kx, but you have the pot odds to call, which is what counts. You're pretty close to having odds to call QT+ as well. 2.5:1 are your pot odds, and you're 1:3 to win against QT.

To calculate your EV vs. a range of hands, take a look at this: http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/