$22 Q,Q Help?

[Olback]

What do i do here given all the action in front of me?

#Game No : 2737212218
***** Hand History for Game 2737212218 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15870434 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Monday, September 19, 01:16:55 EDT 2005
Table Table 13884 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: FishECat ( $775 )
Seat 3: helmuthjr21 ( $745 )
Seat 5: cmadsen791 ( $600 )
Seat 7: evlbvr43 ( $1190 )
Seat 8: PSIchotic ( $745 )
Seat 4: SYDSA ( $775 )
Seat 1: Olback1 ( $770 )
Seat 9: sandj2105 ( $1150 )
Seat 10: mitchko ( $1250 )
Trny:15870434 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback1 [ Qh Qc ]
PSIchotic folds.
>You have options at Table 14511 Table!.
sandj2105 folds.
mitchko calls [30].
Olback1 raises [120].
FishECat folds.
helmuthjr21 folds.
SYDSA folds.
cmadsen791 calls [105].
evlbvr43 calls [90].
mitchko calls [90].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 6h, 7c ]
cmadsen791 is all-In [480]
evlbvr43 calls [480].
mitchko calls [480].
Olback ????

With 3 people in front saying they have hands here I'm folding. Good chance that one of them has 2 pair or a set here.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
With 3 people in front saying they have hands here I'm folding. Good chance that one of them has 2 pair or a set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[unreal_nh]

this is a toughy... i'd hesitate a longggg time before calling here and probably be more inclined to fold. just dont kill yourself when u see a pair of jacks, a str8 draw and a flush draw

[Pete H]

I'd fold.

[ QUOTE ]
when u see a pair of jacks, a str8 draw and a flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a possibility I thought also, but as draws would usually push it's much more likely that the caller(s) have a hand that has you beat.

NP: Trivium - Pillars Of Serpents

[Elektrik]

push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Yes, I really do expect to be ahead enough here. It is a $22 after all.

Without the Qh I'd fold subject to any tells or table style.

Qh does mean you are semi-insured re h flush. With this many in, I doubt you are ahead, you do not have enough chips left to force anyone out on the turn.

Call and stand up?

[ilya]

I think the prize structure makes this a CLEAR fold. Say you're up against AdJc, 9s8s, and AhTh....this is one of the best-case scenarios, I think. Yet even in this case, you're only 30% to take it down. Yes it is profitable. If your opponents turned up these hands and you were playing a winner-takes-all satellite, you would certainly call. However the 50/30/20 prize structure really changes things. 70% of the time you will be gone from the tournament. Having won this hand, you will need to make the money AT LEAST 73% of the time to break even (and that's if you always get 1st!). You can't possibly hope for more than a 10% ROI if this situation comes up every tournament and you call everytime.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you have to fade too much to survive here. if this were a winner take all table i'd call. but with a lot of poker still left to be played with just 15/30 blinds, i think folding is best here.

[Elektrik]

perhaps things have changed, but in my experience AJo, xxh, and 98 is definitely not the best case scenario at a 22.

btw I think this is an easy fold at 100 or 200.

As for the ROI part I think that merits an interesting discussion in itself (that I am in no way prepared or willing to get into), but I think in terms of hourly rate considerations it is more profitable to push here.

Of course, I have absolutely no math to back me up and am going on gut feeling, so I could be dead wrong and have something new to learn.