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#1
08-12-2005, 11:37 AM
 IggyWH Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pittsburgh - FIESTA BOWL BITCHES! Posts: 317
Flop Odds Question

Probably best if I put this in the probability forum but I'll forget it there and I'm sure someone here can answer me.

Preflop AA vs KK

What is the probability that 2 Kings come on the flop?

I never really cared about learning flop odds but this one interests me since it happened to me last night.
#2
08-12-2005, 11:51 AM
 grouchie Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 92
Re: Flop Odds Question

I laughed a good hearty chuckle last night when those two Kings hit the flop last night.
#3
08-12-2005, 11:53 AM
 grouchie Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 92
Re: Flop Odds Question

oh, and two hands after you left the table, someone flopped quads on me.

Found that one amusing as well.
#4
08-12-2005, 11:55 AM
 IggyWH Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pittsburgh - FIESTA BOWL BITCHES! Posts: 317
Re: Flop Odds Question

I guess I could have recognized your name... knew you had to be from here though when you made the B&amp;M comment to that dude who thought his crap don't stink.
#5
08-12-2005, 11:56 AM
 TheNoodleMan Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Bloomington , IN Posts: 325
Re: Flop Odds Question

#6
08-12-2005, 12:11 PM
 IggyWH Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pittsburgh - FIESTA BOWL BITCHES! Posts: 317
Re: Flop Odds Question

[ QUOTE ]
http://twodimes.net/poker/

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks but I don't think that site will give me what I want. I don't want to know odds of AA vs KK, I just want to know given 1 person has AA dn one person has KK, what are the odds that 2 Kings will be flopped.
#7
08-12-2005, 01:45 PM
 mosdef Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Toronto Posts: 168
Re: Flop Odds Question

I'll try this one.

there are 17,296 possible flops from the 48 cards left in the deck.

there are 46 possible flops containing both Ks.

Prob(2K on flop | AA, KK known hole cards) = 46/17,296 = 0.266%.
#8
08-12-2005, 04:44 PM
 IggyWH Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pittsburgh - FIESTA BOWL BITCHES! Posts: 317
Re: Flop Odds Question

[ QUOTE ]
I'll try this one.

there are 17,296 possible flops from the 48 cards left in the deck.

there are 46 possible flops containing both Ks.

Prob(2K on flop | AA, KK known hole cards) = 46/17,296 = 0.266%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure where you got the 17,296 from so maybe you can explain. I did it a different way :

A flop of :

k(1) k(2) x

Where x is any card other than the 2 aces and 4 kings, x = 46. There's then 6 ways you can arrange a flop given the 2 kings. They are :

k(1) k(2) x
k(2) k(1) x
x k(1) k(2)
x k(2) k(1)
k(1) x k(2)
k(2) x k(1)

Each one of those has 46 different ways of coming up so 46 * 6 = 276 possible different flops.

Given that I know 4 cards, there's 48 cards that can come out first, then 47 cards, and finally 46. 48*47*46 = 103776 total possible flops.

So I took the King flops (276) and divided it by the total possible flops (103776) and I get 0.00266 or 0.266%, the same answer you gave me.

So it seems as if the math is correct, I'm just not seeing how you got 17296 possible flops but it's a hot day and my mind isn't working too well today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
#9
08-12-2005, 04:59 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Flop Odds Question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll try this one.

there are 17,296 possible flops from the 48 cards left in the deck.

there are 46 possible flops containing both Ks.

Prob(2K on flop | AA, KK known hole cards) = 46/17,296 = 0.266%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure where you got the 17,296 from so maybe you can explain. I did it a different way :

A flop of :

k(1) k(2) x

Where x is any card other than the 2 aces and 4 kings, x = 46. There's then 6 ways you can arrange a flop given the 2 kings. They are :

k(1) k(2) x
k(2) k(1) x
x k(1) k(2)
x k(2) k(1)
k(1) x k(2)
k(2) x k(1)

Each one of those has 46 different ways of coming up so 46 * 6 = 276 possible different flops.

Given that I know 4 cards, there's 48 cards that can come out first, then 47 cards, and finally 46. 48*47*46 = 103776 total possible flops.

So I took the King flops (276) and divided it by the total possible flops (103776) and I get 0.00266 or 0.266%, the same answer you gave me.

So it seems as if the math is correct, I'm just not seeing how you got 17296 possible flops but it's a hot day and my mind isn't working too well today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Divide 103776 by 6 and you get 17296. He's counting each flop only once ignoring order, instead of 6 times, and this is the number of combinations = C(48,3) = 17296. You computed the number of permutations = P(48,3) = 103776.
#10
08-12-2005, 06:13 PM
 IggyWH Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pittsburgh - FIESTA BOWL BITCHES! Posts: 317
Re: Flop Odds Question

Thanks for clearing that up... been too long since I had a stats class [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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