My bust hand from Sunday's PokerStars $500K guaranteed

[locutus2002]

I like your push.

Some more back of the envelope crude estimates!
Hero is about 50% against a modest range for villain (77++,a9s++,kq). So the push is only EV+ to the extent of hero's FE which hero feels is low and the dead money in the pot. How low? Villain is getting ~1.5:1 in the pot to call a push and has to be 40% in the hand to justify a call. If villain puts hero on a tight range of 99++,AQ++, villain can still call his entire range and get 40% equity. Given hero's read, and villain's stack, I think hero's FE is pretty small. Maybe villain throws down only the Harrington 10% which we will estimate at ~10%, so hero's FE is only worth ~10% X T1850 = ~T180.
There's T850 in the pot of dead money (not belonging to either player) which hero gets 1/2:T425.
Hero bets T7000 to win ~T600 (T425+T180); it has alot of variance for a little gain, but hero should welcome the variance at this stage in the mid-tourney, and it's CEV+.
The estimates are crude, but it will come out CEV+.

I have ignored further action by other players.

[DonT77]

Given villain's table image (which he could now be using to his advantage) and his chip stack, I put his ROHs here at any 2 cards since this could easily be a raise-steal; because after all - who wants to take on the big stack?

I push (and bust) here too.

General Question, how fast do the blinds go up in this tourney? If it's like most internet tourneys, you really don't have much time before you get blinded out.. need to act on your good hands and be decisive..

I would definitely push.. you are <10 times the pot size, and AQo is a good hand even after min raise.. as alluded to, there are only a few hands that are dominating you and you may even win the pot without a showdown.

And for everyone referring to Harrington, those reccommendations are generally for 1.) playing against tight players, 2.) Blinds and antes are low compared to stack, 3.) Stacks are roughly the same.. Under these circumstances, I'd push.. you will hit an AK 1 in 110 hands.. AA/KK/QQ 1 in 220 respectively.. so this might be ur best hand and best situation for a longgg time

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
There were about 1100 players remaining out of 3079 starting. So the average stack was ~t7000. The blinds were 200/400 25 ante. I had the avg., 7000.

I was in the CO, villain was one seat to my right. Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands. So he wasn't being a cowboy and getting lucky. But, my thoughts were that his confidence was high, and perhaps my fold equity was low.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I push here close to every time regardless of FE. Big stack calls with A-10+, KQ and 66+ here. You dominate him more than he dominates you.

But just out of curiosity, do we consider the blinds still to act in the equation at all? Does that keep some from pushing here?

Brad

[JC_Saves]

You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

[mic_check12]

Get the chips in. If you pass up opportunities to come over the top like this then you aint gonna be winning tournaments. Ok sometimes he has a big hand and you're gone but this is far outweighted by a) the number of times he folds and b)the number of times he calls and loses.

Some of the advice in this thread is horribly weak tight, perhaps coming from people who don't play this tournament too often and don't really understand how quick the blinds rise in it. You will get nowhere without gambling here and there and this is certainly a spot to gamble in.

[JC_Saves]

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are completely ignoring the stack size implications and the read the OP has on the PFR, both of which are the determining factors on what you want to do here.

Stack sizes make a PF call horrible as you have no wiggle room on the flop, which you will miss 2/3 of the time and if you hit an A or Q, you won't be sure if they're good, not to mention that a PF call gives nice odds to everyone behind to call......

Regards,
Woodguy

[fnurt]

You didn't mention the fact that Harrington is talking about a raise from early position, as opposed to this post which is about a probable steal from CO+1.