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  #1  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:20 PM
Lance Lance is offline
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Default KK on button with 3 players remaining

I played a 1-table tournament with some friends this weekend and have been thinking long and hard about this hand.

3 players remaining
Pay out:
1st: 60%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 10%

I'm on the button with T350
BB has T580
SB has T 70
Blinds are 8-16 with an ante of 2

I am dealt red KK

Preflop:
I raise to 75
SB folds
BB re-raises to 150

BB and I play together all the time. He knows that I am a tight aggressive type and takes shots at me. Earlier he relished stealing a pot off me when I missed the flop but bet with an overcard, then folded to his big raise. He flashed 72o and laughed. All in all he is a pretty tricky, loose aggressive opponent.

I am sure I am in the lead right now, and figure there's about a 20% chance he's bluffing outright. I smooth call, willing to chance an Ace on the flop, intending to take a lot of chips from him.

1. Is this a bad idea? Should I just go all-in? I am 95% sure I am way ahead here, and I wanted to collect some chips with my KK. It would be very unusual for him to re-raise me in this spot with AA.



Flop: Q 7 5 rainbow
Pot : 330

No Ace, a great flop for me. BB checks. I have 200 left, and bet 100 of it hoping to get a call giving 4.3:1. BB goes all in.

Wow, didn't see that coming. The pot is now 630, and I have 100 to call. This seems like an automatic call, but I force myself to break it down HOH-style and assign him the following hand probabilities.

AA: 10
QQ: 45
AK: 5
AQ: 30
Bluff: 10 (includes anything like JJ, TT, AJ at this point)

I figure he pretty much knows I am going to call my last 100 chips with those odds, so QQ and AQ seem like favorites. I make QQ the more likely just to be safe. Dan says to always assign 10% to bluffs, and that would definitely apply to the SB. On the other hand, he's got to be pretty certain I'm not folding for my last 100 chips when I'm getting 6.3:1. Given I didn't put him on AA, that means QQ and AQ are his most likely hands.

So my rough chances of winning (with lots of rounding on the chances of an outdraw) are:
.10*.1 + .45*.1 + .05*.9 + .30*.8 + .10*.9 = .41%

This is 6:4, so I'm obviously getting plenty for a call.

2. Any arguments with my analysis? Anybody fold here? Remeber, the SB has only 70 chips, so I'll be in 2nd place by a hair if I do fold.

I call all-in. Results in reply post.
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  #2  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:24 PM
lastchance lastchance is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

There is no way you can possibly laydown KK on the flop against Villain.

I would have reshoved. I really doubt Villain can fold many hands getting more than 2:1 preflop with a chance to see all 5 cards, though your line may not be that bad.
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  #3  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:24 PM
liucipher liucipher is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

I didn't read a word of your analysis.

All I saw was "KK, undercard rainbow flop, tricky/loose aggressive opponent."

I can't imagine a situation in the world where I don't go all-in, especially already in the money.
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  #4  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:30 PM
Lance Lance is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining


I show KK, SB shows QQ. His set of queens holds up to win.

I think I analyzed everything correctly in the hand, but the one thing I left out was the fact that I had a big chip lead over the SB. I should have been more hesitant to get into a fight with the BB, who has me outchipped, so close to the serious money.

Was this avoidable? I think maybe I should have been all in pre-flop once the BB re-raised me. Then I know I'm going into the hand as the big favorite and whatever happens, happens. I should have been much more content to take the blinds plus the BBs re-raise at that point in the tourney, then concentrated on busting out the short stack.

Thoughts appreciated.
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  #5  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:34 PM
Bill Poker Bill Poker is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

u would go broken no matter what. I dont think he would fold his QQ even if you pushed preflop/
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  #6  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:38 PM
bluewilde bluewilde is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

[ QUOTE ]
AA: 10
QQ: 45
AK: 5
AQ: 30
Bluff: 10 (includes anything like JJ, TT, AJ at this point)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure you can be so certain of these estimates. If he's truly LAGy, he could have many hands with a Q. Also, "Harrington's Law" states there is at least a 10% chance that an opponent is bluffing when he makes a big bet. For an excessively aggro opponent, this can be mich higher...so you have even more reason to call. It sucks that he had QQ, but based on how he plays, and how he plays against you, you have to call (reevaluating the percentages/hand ranges only makes your decision clearer, it's still right).

Can you avoid it? Yes and no. You're right to not want to pick a fight with SB on life support, but KK is too strong, it's a monster 3-handed, and you have to play it aggressively. Maybe when the really aggressive player raises and then checks, some warning bells go off (he likes to bet...and he's not betting), but I still think you have to call this one.
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  #7  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:44 PM
lastchance lastchance is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

If you don't go broke here, you're losing money.
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  #8  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:45 PM
Nicholasp27 Nicholasp27 is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

i woulda shoved all in pre-flop

if he has qq, which is like .43% or something, then oh well...


u had 2 options: fold and take your great chance at 30% of the prize pool instead of 10% or push and take your high % chance of them folding or u beating a call...

with your prize structure, u do get rewarded for lasting till 2nd, but i still don't think i could lay down kk there
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  #9  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:46 PM
Bigwig Bigwig is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

Yeah, your buddy is right. You're too tight. I'd call this in a flash and wouldn't think twice.
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  #10  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:50 PM
AliasMrJones AliasMrJones is offline
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Default Re: KK on button with 3 players remaining

I push after the re-raise PF. Short of that I get all my chips in on the flop. After you've put in over 2/3 of your stack, you have KK and a raggedy Q-high flop, I don't think the HOH-style analysis is necessary.
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