Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-08-2002, 12:10 PM
MikeyEdge MikeyEdge is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chicago
Posts: 49
Default Trips to Win

If you are playing 5 card draw, Three-of-a-kind to win, and you are dealt 2 Pair, is it better to break it up and draw 3 or go for the full house and draw 1?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-08-2002, 01:42 PM
Homer Homer is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,909
Default Re: Trips to Win

I don't exactly know how this game works, but I'll assume you simply want to know which action will be more likely to give you trips or better.

Option 1: Draw one to two-pair

P(Trips or better) = 4/47 = .085

Option 2: Draw three to one-pair

P(Trips or better) = P(Trips of the pair you kept) + P(Three drawing cards match for trips)

I'll assume the probability of drawing three matching cards is negligible, so it is just the probability that you draw one or two of the remaining rank of your pair. This is the same as 1 - P(drawing none of the paired rank)

P(Trips or better) = 1 - [(45/47)*(44/46)*(43/45)] = .1249

So...it looks like dropping three and drawing to one pair is better, if you are only interested in the odds of obtaining trips or better.

-- Homer
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.