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Old 04-20-2005, 11:56 AM
BigSkiRace BigSkiRace is offline
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Default Can some one do the math on this in this situation

Why is this play +EV or why is it -EV

In BB with Kd4d, theres like 3 or 4 limpers including UTG, loose loose button raises (he could be raising any 2 cards here), SB folds, I call.....I got flammed on anther forum after posting this hand they said I was retarded with my post flop play...I would like to see the math if ther is any
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Old 04-20-2005, 03:20 PM
olavfo olavfo is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

You can't compute the EV of your call using pure math. The situation is way too complex, since the EV of a call depends both on your cards, your opponents' cards and on the poker skills of everyone involved. You have to use a combination of sound judgement and empirical data to estimate EV for these kind of problems. But mostly you simply want to know whether it's -EV or +EV, not the exact value.

I would say this is a +EV call if you play well after the flop, and I would also call here. You have to be careful if you flop top pair (since you have no kicker), but in my book K4s is clearly playable from BB under the conditions you describe.

Why don't you give us the rest of the hand, and maybe we can get a discussion going?

olavfo
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Old 04-20-2005, 04:18 PM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

the simple answer is: this is usually a good call.

as olavfo says, though, this is not a pure math question.
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Old 04-20-2005, 05:34 PM
Mano Mano is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

I replied in your other thread. Assuming the other 4 limpers call the raiser, you are risking 1 small bet to win an 10.5 bet pot. For this to be +EV your pot equity needs to be above about 9.5%. Running Poker Stove against 5 random hands I got that your pot equity would be 19%. Even lowering this by a bit, to say 15% your call is still very +EV.
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Old 04-20-2005, 06:24 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming the other 4 limpers call the raiser, you are risking 1 small bet to win an 10.5 bet pot. For this to be +EV your pot equity needs to be above about 9.5%. Running Poker Stove against 5 random hands I got that your pot equity would be 19%. Even lowering this by a bit, to say 15% your call is still very +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is really poor analysis.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] The fact that there are other betting rounds is a huge disadvantage, and it isn't factored in at all. Many of your hot and cold wins will come from chasing weak draws, such as a draw to an overcard or to two pair/trips, or to a back-door flush. You may have to fold before then, or you may have to pay more to chase.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You can't assume you are up against 5 random hands. K4s will do much worse against hands that even loose limpers will play, and someone raised.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Your position is bad.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Your call does not close the action, and it is possible someone will reraise.

K4s is an easily dominated hand. You will infrequently hit a flop you really like, and will often be charged for weak draws that miss. This call is at best marginal.
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Old 04-20-2005, 06:54 PM
Mano Mano is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

All this is true, but I still think this is much too big an overlay for this not to be +EV. Unless you are at a very solid table (and the description seems to say that is very much not the case) I think this is a very easy call.
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Old 04-20-2005, 08:14 PM
mannika mannika is offline
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Default Re: Can some one do the math on this in this situation

You should be making a 10.5:1 call with almost any two suited preflop.
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