Two Plus Two Older Archives What is my error ?
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
09-26-2002, 01:22 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
What is my error ?

I played in a PS tournament and two players went all in on the flop against my top pair ace kicker.

They had 6 and nine outs. (Flush draw and open straight draw with the flush cards no good for the straight draw)

I think, the probability of me winning when they combined have 15 outs is 46% (32/47*31/46)

But if I try another way, I dont get the same result :

Probability of the 6 outs beating me 1-(41/47*40/46) = 24%

Probability of the 9 outs beating me when the 6 outs havent beated me (1-0,24)*(1-(38/47*37/46) = 27%

If I add those two I get 51%

You could say that it doesnt matter very much as I am getting around 1:1 odds with the pot laying 2:1, but it has been obsessing me.

By the way, I won this hand and later lucked out to win the tournament.

Kim
#2
09-26-2002, 02:17 PM
 irchans Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 157
Re: What is my error ?

Your error is in the statement

"Probability of the 9 outs beating me when the 6 outs haven't beaten me (1-0.24)*(1-(38/47*37/46)) = 27%"

You know that the 6 outs are not among the cards if they haven't beaten you so,

Probability of the 9 outs beating you when the 6 outs haven't beaten you is <font color="green"> (1-0.24)*(1-(32/41*31/40)) = 30%. </font color>

The rest looks good [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]
#3
09-27-2002, 01:27 AM
 Gabe Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 680
Re: What is my error ?

It ignores the times when the both beat you.
#4
09-27-2002, 03:21 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Thank you very much, I feel enlightened

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     ISOP General Poker Discussion     Texas Hold'em     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory Limit Texas Hold'em     Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em     Medium Stakes Hold'em     Small Stakes Hold'em     Micro-Limits     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded PL/NL Texas Hold'em     Mid-, High-Stakes Pot- and No-Limit Hold'em     Medium-Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em     Small Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em Tournament Poker     Multi-table Tournaments     One-table Tournaments Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Rake Back     Computer Technical Help Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Software 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Science, Math, and Philosophy     The Stock Market

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:25 PM.