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Old 09-12-2002, 01:48 AM
MMMMMM MMMMMM is offline
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Default What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing


ALBANY, New York (AP) -- On the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks, a date known as 9-11, the evening numbers drawn in the New York Lottery were 9-1-1.

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Old 09-12-2002, 03:59 AM
baggins baggins is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

wow. i bet the state had to pay out bigtime for that one. i wonder how many people played 911 yesterday.

as far as odds:

1/1000 or 999-1 against 911 coming up.

coming up on that specific date, any year? 1/365000.

coming up 911 on 11.9.02, i'm not sure what our sample size is, so i don't know how to calculate this one. if it is in infinite time, then the probability is 100%.
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Old 09-12-2002, 08:51 AM
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Default P=1.0

The fix was on.
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Old 09-12-2002, 10:36 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default S&P future closed at 911.00

...on eve of aniversary. No signs of collusion or price fixing.
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Old 09-12-2002, 10:55 AM
Ray Zee Ray Zee is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

if you asked this before it happened its one chance out of 999 or whatever the total numbers they use. after the fact its a moot point as it is only talked about when it happens.
just like getting aces twice in a row. its the price of getting it only once. as you only look for it after the first pair come in. but you never even think about it till it happens, which it will at some point. it only matters if before the start of the hand you exclaim i am looking to get aces in both of the next two deals. same thing with this lottery thing.
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Old 09-14-2002, 09:44 AM
cardshark cardshark is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

Third poster, Anonymous, says it all.
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Old 09-14-2002, 10:07 AM
cardshark cardshark is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

One additional thought:

"If the probability of a particular outcome being a fix is far greater than the probability of that same outcome being a coincidence, than the outcome in question is probably a fix."

You can quote me on that one any time.
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Old 09-14-2002, 01:10 PM
baggins baggins is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

yeah, except the probability of it being a fix is far worse than 999:1. so i doubt it was a fix.
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Old 09-14-2002, 02:07 PM
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

baggins said:

"1/1000 or 999-1 against 911 coming up.

coming up on that specific date, any year? 1/365000."

Eh? The chances of 911 coming up on any specific date, any year, are 1/1000. The only way your number would make sense is if the state only did one lotto drawing a year.

coming up 911 on 11.9.02, the chances of this are also 1/1000

The day we pick doesn't matter. The chances of drawing 911 are always 1/1000.

Matt
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Old 09-14-2002, 06:08 PM
cardshark cardshark is offline
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Default Re: What\'s The Chances of This One? 911 NY Drawing

Help me understand with a simplified example, please. (I am not claiming one way or another, I am only asking a question).

If I you roll a die, the odds of rolling, let’s say “3”, are 1/6. How about if you are about to roll the die six times, and I make a bet that you will roll “3” on the third roll; are the odds still 1/6?

By the way, baggins, I do not know how the lottery works but I don’t think the state would lose any money if many people bet the same numbers. I think that the state takes a percentage off of the entire “pot” (whatever the proper lotto terminology may be) and the winnings get distributed amongst a larger number of winners. Thus each winner ends up with a smaller piece of the pie. But I may be wrong because I don’t really know much about lottery. (Except that it is a game of chance, in theory).
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