Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-14-2005, 12:57 AM
rt1 rt1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: irc
Posts: 33
Default bad beat jackpot size for 0 ev

i am trying to figure out the break even point of the party bbj. here is my thinking, let me know if i am right?

chance of bad beat = 1/155,000 hands. taken from http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf.

bbj payouts
Loser = pot * .7 * .5
Winner = pot * .7 * .25
Other players = (pot * .7 * .25) / 8

Now, here are my 5/10 stats from PT, this months 10k sample size.
Hands won = .06 (6%)
Hands raked = .7 (70%)
bbj drop = .50 (50 cents)

so... before a jackpot is hit you will lose

(155000 * .06 * .70 * .5) = 3,255$

so you will need to win 3,255$ from the bbj to break even. i use the worst case, the players splitting the remaining pot, and get this.

3,255 * 8 = 26040 amount of money to be split.
26040 / .7 / .25 = bbj size before the split. 25% of 70% of the pot = 26040. mean the bbj size must be 148800.

So about 150k, does this make sense?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-14-2005, 10:27 AM
Freudian Freudian is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 24
Default Re: bad beat jackpot size for 0 ev

It depends on how you play. If you play at a table where everyone limps preflop, checks flop and turn and river unless they have the required hands or better (then they cap river).

Then you get no rake and no contribution to the jackpot. The chance of getting the jackpot increases because of more hands played/hour and that people at a table like that can play all hands that make for a potential bad beat (64s etc). Of course you have to calculate the chance that the pokerroom voids the winnings because of the play pattern at the table.

So the EV would be your share of the potential jackpot.

---------------------------------

If you assume normal play at a normal table (ie at what level the share of the jackpot is equal to the extra rake) bonus whores have some sums for Party.

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-14-2005, 05:32 PM
gazarsgo gazarsgo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Goleta, CA
Posts: 95
Default Re: bad beat jackpot size for 0 ev

why does this number go down from 10/20 to 15/30???
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-15-2005, 02:17 AM
rt1 rt1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: irc
Posts: 33
Default Re: bad beat jackpot size for 0 ev

do you have a way to prove those jackpot sizes?

% of hands raked, % of hands won, % of rake when u win the hand?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.