Two Plus Two Older Archives Probability question - Average PF raise is 8%. Risk limp-reraising?
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#1
11-30-2004, 09:14 AM
 BlueBear Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 117
Probability question - Average PF raise is 8%. Risk limp-reraising?

In the pokertracker stats, we are given the table averages and one of the statistics is the "average table preflop raise percentage". Let's assume that this figure is for a full table game and the calculation of this number does not include your own preflop raise percentage.

Ok, so if the "average table preflop raise percentage" is, say 8%, and we are UTG with a premium pocket pair and assume we are aiming for a limp-reraise, what is the probability that one of the remaining 9 players will "reopen" the action by a raise and hence allowing you to reraise preflop?

Assume that only the "average raise preflop percentage" is known and that nothing about the distribution of the individual actual player's percentages are known. I hope this question is clear.
#2
11-30-2004, 01:13 PM
 gaming_mouse Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: my hero is sfer Posts: 2,480
Re: Probability question - Average PF raise is 8%. Risk limp-reraising?

If the individual player PFR percentages are not known, you cannot calculate an exact answer from the info given (ie, the average PFR%).

However, we can approximate by assuming that each player, individually, has an 8% chance of raising you. We also have to assume that each player makes his action independent of the action of the other players, which is a false assumption. So the following offers a rough estimate at best of the real-world probability:

1 - (.92)^9 = .5279, about 50%

HTH,
gm

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