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Old 04-22-2002, 10:29 PM
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Default Poll on Market Movements



I'd like to ask everyone what they think the probability is that


1) The market approaches the September low of the SP 500 but does not go below. The SP500 is currently around 1100 and the September 21 low was 944.75.


2) The market goes below 944.75 and if so how low could it possibly go.


3) We are in a bull market and this recent downturn is a correction in a bull.


4) The market continues trading in a narrow 100-150 point range for a long time (over 1 year)



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Old 04-23-2002, 03:55 AM
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Default Re: Poll on Market Movements



1. 15%

2. 5%

3. 35%

4. 45%


I would say it has support now, not much news will come out past the next week as far as earnings go and then after that all the good economic data will slowly drive it up. I don't know if its a bull market, but its a market with a gradually evolving up bias and I would guess it ends 2002 between 1175-1300. I think the negativity is quite pronounced now, but will turn as the economy picks up more steam. I certainly don't buy the double dip theory, I think that is 5% chance at best. The economy won't match the Q1 growth again until maybe Q4, but it should show positive readings for quite some time due to all the accomodative stuff going on. For the double dip to come into play would require either a run on the dollar which seems extremely unlikely or some drastic terrorist actions or outright war with much more than Israel and a bunch of impotent Arab nations going at it. Oil might play a role in it, but I don't see that happening either. All these "possible" things are really 1-2% chance each at best. And believe me world events and economic news will be the drivers for some time, not the Enron crisis or inflationary worries.
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Old 04-23-2002, 07:30 AM
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Default Re: Poll on Market Movements



1. i view 1026 s%p level as key resistance pt...if mkt closes below 1026,,down, down, dow,...


2. i think we are in a medium range trading range...strange how long thw dow stayed around 1,000...now staying around 10,000...psychology of numbers...


3. strange weather patterns this year...nov beans..if they trade above 4.98...my model has them going to 7.22..jmho..for info purposes only...kids do not try this at home...gl


4. gold seems to be in a bullish ascending triangle pattern..


gl
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Old 04-23-2002, 08:46 AM
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Default Re: Poll on Market Movements



The S&P is more overvalued then it ever has been.

"They" seem to be supporting it.I have been for the last 2 1/2 months selling all rallies.

Fair value somewhere around 650 to 800 although

I hold no positions for longer than a day or two,

and typically day only.

The P/E of the S&P should be 15.
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Old 04-23-2002, 09:05 PM
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Default Re: Poll on Market Movements



15 in a historically low inflation and real interest rate period Dr. Bill? That ignores an awful lot of fundamental issues and the fact that stock issuing companies dominate the economy more than they ever have. Another issue is simply that there is more investment targeted money than there ever has been sloshing around. There aren't many places for it to go. Long term bond yields under 6% won't get any attention, munis and money market funds are practically giving you nothing in return. People have clearly set aside a lot of money to be used for investing, this money has to go somewhere and with interest rates as they are the money will increasingly go into stocks.


S&P isn't overvalued by anywhere near that much, but of course that is just my opinion. Selling into rallies right now is an excellent strategy because it feeds on the fears of investors. It will work awhile longer, but I think by year end the strategy could take a hit as investors turn their sentiments upward. Call it a bubble if you want, but I think earnings growth due to a lot of needed layoffs/capacity reductions and continuing productivity growth will make what looks like high EPS numbers turn much more moderate by year end, especially when you put them into the context of potential returns in other commonly used investment vehicles.
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