Final table as chip leader -- playing KJo

[M.B.E.]

This problem is based on a true story that happened to me this week.

You're the chip leader of six players at the final table of a big tourney. You have T200,000 out of T600,000 in play. All six players are good. The prize structure for the final six (in terms of percentage of the total prize pool) is 25-16-11-8-6-4.5.

You have been using your chip lead to steal quite a bit, successfully. The blinds are now 2000/4000, ante 200.

It's folded to you in the cutoff and you raise to 18,000 with KJo. Now there is 25,200 in the pot and you have 181,800 remaining in your stack.

The button and SB fold, then the BB reraises all in. Obviously if the all-in raise were just a few thousand more you would call. The question is, how much more does the all-in raise have to be, mathematically, for the correct play to be borderline between call and fold?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Borderline to me would be getting 2:1 on the call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Any time the raise is less than your 14,000 you automatically call. When it's exactly 14,000 you should still probably call. Above that I would start to consider folding. The one thing you must remember is that you have a really big stack. Since you were in a steal position, he may have reraised with a hand that you're not a big enough dog to for folding to be correct. As the amount is considerably more than double tho I would fold.

al

[sam h]

Borderline to me would be a raise of about 45K.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Borderline to me would be getting 2:1 on the call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]
That makes me feel better. In the actual hand the amount of his raise was just under 30K, so I was getting 2.3:1 on the call (69,200:30,000). (My opponent started the hand with about 48K.)

I called. I knew there was nothing he could have that was an underdog to my KJ (almost inconceivable that he'd move in with KTs or worse), but he might well have moved in with 77 through TT, maybe smaller pocket pairs too. Also a hand like A8s is just a 1.5:1 favourite. Even JJ is only a 2.15:1 favourite over my KJo.

On the other hand, AA is about a 6.5:1 favourite and KK is more than 10:1. So if my opponent is even a little tighter than I contemplated, the possibility that he has KK or AA could really affect my equity against the weighted distribution of his range of hands. For example, if he would only move in with TT-AA or AJ-AK, then it's an obvious fold -- I'd need, what, 4:1 to call? The calculation's easy but I'm too lazy to do it right now. Anyway if that were his range of hands than my call getting 2.3:1 was incorrect. It only became correct if he would also make the raise with a lot of smaller pairs and smaller aces.

Anyway, the BB turned over AJo (a 2.9:1 favourite) and won the hand, so I had just lost about a quarter of my chips. I was still the leader. The railbirds started chirping about what a terrible play I had made by calling the reraise. I don't take that stuff too seriously and I knew it wasn't "terrible", but I started wondering whether folding would have been better considering my 2.3:1 pot odds.

Thanks to those who responded.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya M.B.E.,

In FTOP terms, you made a mistake ... but that's only true if you somehow knew he had AJ. I agree with Greg. Given the pot odds and the situation, you made the right play.

Let the railbirds chirp. They're gonna chirp anyway. I like to observe and I'll congratulate people when they do well, and sometimes try to console them when something goes sour ... but I don't critique people's play. It's rude, and besides ...

... who died and left me God?

Cris

[Bozeman]

If he would raise with 99-AA, AK, AQ, you are only about a 2.2:1 dog (from allenciox's table). As a big stack, his chips are worth more than yours, so I would call with 3:1 if I thought I was better than the table, and 2:1 if I thought I was a dog (unlikely [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

Craig

[JohnG]

Getting those odds is normally a call. When getting 2-1 you should be calling the majority of the time with a lot of hands. Another reason to call when it is mathematically close is for psychological reasons. They'll think twice about moving in against you in future. They know you cannot be bullied.

Biggest mistake beginners make is folding these situations when they shouldn't.

It does bring to mind another piece of advice: Never bluff all-in against a good player if he will be getting 2-1 on the call.