Betting low draw for value?

[DBowling]

My first day of O/8. Be prepared for a rush of newbie posts.

is it possible to bet my low draw for value? how many callers will i need? here's a hand:

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets...</font>

[DBowling]

i guess i need better than 5:1 because i have a 40% chance of making my nut low for half the pot, 20% equity to any bets that go in. but im not sure how i should factor in the times im quartered. and in this hand any low card gives me the nut low, but how would i think about this if i didnt have all of the counterfeit protection?

[wiseheart]

Okay, 1st of all, on the flop, you only have 1
low card, so you should most likely fold right
there. Secondly, on the turn there is now a
flush, and w/ a couple players in someone is
probably going to have it, thus you would be
talking about betting a poor drawing hand
against a made hand. You should probably fold,
and at best just check/call if theh pot is
worth the draw. You also have to think if
your playing at low limits that some other
poor player is going to be drawing for the
same low, only giving you a quarter of thepot,
further more the person w/ the flush might have
the same low, also giving you 1/4 of the pot.

Now, if the board came up w/two low cards and
you have a decent high hand, then you could bet
the low 4 value, it kind of depends on the limits
your playing at. Someone stated the odds of getting
the nut low w/ A2xx is 49% and any low 57%...so
if you have a low that can't be counterfeited and
muli-way action in the pot then it might be a good idea.

Just my thoughts...feel free to disagree w/ them.

[DBowling]

why are you asking me to fold when nobody bet into me?

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
My first day of O/8. Be prepared for a rush of newbie posts.

is it possible to bet my low draw for value? how many callers will i need? here's a hand:

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets...</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't bet in that spot. You currently have 5 high, and with all that weakness being shown and a flush possible, you can't count on getting called by more than a couple of players. You also have zero outs to the high half of the pot, so if the low doesn't come, you cannot win without a bluff. The only merit to betting is that you might set up a bluff on the river, but this pot is not very big, so fooling around to set up fancy plays is not advisable.

There are also too many players in the hand for a semi-bluff to be very effective. Against 6 opponents, someone will almost always find a reason to stick around, even if its only another nut low draw that has you outkicked, and you would only be bluffing at 3.5 BB so your return is not very great.

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, 1st of all, on the flop, you only have 1
low card, so you should most likely fold right
there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly recommend not folding when the action is checked to you.

[wiseheart]

Sorry overlooked that it was checked to you [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
But, I would still check, and not call a bet.
Omaha 8 is a lot about quarters. You want to be
the one getting 3/4 of the pot, not 1/4. Remember
the 49%/57% for lows. If your looking for # of
people to call looking for a nut low, 4 is usually
good, because then if you DO get 1/4 you are getting
even money.

[sy_or_bust]

I think the flop is obvious. He wouldn't be calling a bet if there had been one. The turn is no good either. You should check and hope to get a free river. If CO bets, then you'll need a bunch of callers to draw profitably.

The point is your bare nut low draw isn't very good on the turn. The pot is very small and you stand to win a small amount when you aren't quartered or counterfeited (both of which will happen reasonably often). Hands that call a bet here are usually strong highs with weak lows or strong/nut lows with playable highs. You definitely don't want to bet. You really should check and fold to a CO bet unless many loose players tag along. Tight players will much more frequently quarter you.

[gergery]

At first I thought it was very bad, but after running some numbers, I think your semi-bluff here is only slightly EV negative.

I played around with some math a bit. First, let’s say you check. Then 24 cards miss and you fold for a net EV of 0 for you. For 20 cards you win half the pot worth 1.75bb so your weighted average EV if you check is about .8BB (no split for low and just one opponent to keep things easy).

If you bet and are called then on 24 cards you miss and fold for -1EV and on 20 cards you bet and get a profit of roughly +2.25EV (I’m using some simplifying assumptions on how many callers), for a net EV of around +.5 or so.

Solve for the math, and your bluff bet needs to generate a fold around 10-15% of the time or so to make betting profitable.

So, how often will the bluff work? If you assume that any set, any flushdraw 9 or higher, and any 23xx will call, that’s about a 30% chance of randomly being dealt it for 1 opponent, so for 6 opponents I think your chances of success are around the 10-15% you need. I think weak flushes, sets and 23xx could all check this, and all may call you here too, so the checking doesn’t mean a much greater chance of success.

There are many things that could change this – if your table has people who like slowplaying, checkraising, calling with weaker hands, or being tricky then checking is better. But betting out here is not as bad as I thought, if you assume at least some fold equity.

--greg

[PokerProdigy]

I would bet it for value on the flop, but I am also new so I am not completely sure if this is the correct play [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]