The Turn from Hell: Any callers?

McMelchior · #1 10-16-2005, 12:04 PM

Stars $10 MTT, villain has been playing tightly and slowplayed big pairs:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1560)
MP2 (t2960)
MP3 (t4835)
CO (t1320)
Button (t990)
SB (t2225)
BB (Villain) (t1650)
UTG (t2275)
UTG+1 (t2820)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t130, 5 folds, Villain calls t100, UTG folds.

Pot is t305

Flop: (t305) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets t270, Hero raises to t630, Villain calls t360.

Pot is t1,565

Turn: (t1565) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets t890 (All-In), Hero (who has t800 left)???

Call or fold? Why?

BTW, the converter has been messing my HHs up for a while, and never shows pot sizes ... any suggestions (apart from hand correcting as I tend to do)?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

billyjex · #2 10-16-2005, 12:12 PM

I don't like your flop raise. It's too small. He's getting odds to draw. Often against people who can't fold TP I will overbet push that flop.

The turn is really bad, and folding is probably not that bad.

#3 10-16-2005, 01:40 PM

Your flop raise is horrible as it's not much more than a min raise. You really need to push here as a raise to t900 or so like it should have been would have left you with t500 committing you anyways.

But seeing this turn and his push you have to fold. He either go there with the flush or trips. I can't see him pushing anything that you beat besides a great bluff.

locutus2002 · #4 10-16-2005, 01:59 PM

Hero folds.

I like your flop raise. If you raise big villain might throw down many queens. Villain gets ~2.6:1 to call the flop raise and has 5 outs to a queen and ~9 outs to the flush or str8. He is OOP and will not get paid many times.

This is an easy fold.

Sam T. · #5 10-16-2005, 02:05 PM

I think I push the flop. It looks like he's taking a stab at it (good for him!), but with almost t600 in the middle, I'd like to end this now. If he's on TP and a flush draw he's got more outs than I'm happy with.

I think you can fix the converter by changing the format in the top left of the screen.

On the turn, you're either the vicitim of a back alley mugging, waaaaay behind or drawing dead. Very nice bluff on his part, but fold.

Sam

#6 10-16-2005, 02:06 PM

I have to agree with the others. Make at least a full pot raise flop since its not horribly threatening at this point. Board pairing and setting up backdoor flush and straight draw and he pushes? Oh hell yeah fold, take a deep breath, and work back your stack.

#7 10-16-2005, 02:06 PM

I can't put villian on a straight draw here. If he has AQ then he has 5 outs to 2 Qs and 3 As. However if he has the ace high flush draw he has 9 flush outs and 3 As giving him 12 outs. I don't want to give a cheap turn to a possible 12 outs.

Also you don't know what beats you on the turn. If an A, Q, or club shows what do you do? You know have to fade 14 outs and you don't know which ones beat you. Push this flop and be happy to take it down here or get called by a worse hand.

DyessMan89 · #8 10-16-2005, 02:07 PM

Lets see what he could have ...

1. 2 Clubs. I would not expect this to be the case, unless its 2 big clubs. I dont know many people who pot the flop with just clubs. Unlikley.
2. 89 or 45. Would not expect most players to call a preflop raise with either of these hands ... unless they were suited. Unlikley.
3. Stone cold Bluff- He would not have called your raise if he was bluffing without an out. Unlikley
4. Set or two-pair- (66,77,QQ,Q6,Q7,76) I dont think the latter 4 are quite likley, but I think 66 and 77 are definite possiblities. Somewhat likley
5. Underpair- He would not play the flop so aggressivley, and then push all-in on this turn card IMO. Unlikley.
6. Queen (especially a weak-kid kicker)- I think this is the likley possiblity. I can certainly see him calling a raise preflop with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a similar hand, and then pushing this turn. You are drawing to 2 outs IMO.

BTW, I would have flat caleld the flop and played it as a WA/WB situation.

Heres my hand range ...

99-66,Q9s+,Q9o+. Thats all I honestly can put him on. Against this hand range your equity is no suprise ... 28.5%.

This is not even close ... even if you have the Kc I might decide to toss this.

Sam T. · #9 10-16-2005, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I would have flat caleld the flop and played it as a WA/WB situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a $10 tournament with an overpair? Unless you flop top set on a K72-rainbow board, when aren't you WA/WB? This is looking for monsters big time.

McMelchior · #10 10-16-2005, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop raise is horrible

[/ QUOTE ]
It just doesn't do it to say "I think you raised too litle on the flop", does it?

Anyway, assuming the villain is not ahead on the flop, the only way villain can have more than 9 outs is if he flopped a str8 flush draw (we know now that he can't hold TP & a 4-flush). 5c4c and 9c8c gives him 15 out, but none of these holdings are likely.

So villain's best possible drawing-odds (still asuming he's not ahead) occurs if he holds Ac xc for 1:2.9.

If he holds any two non-Ace clubs he's down to 1:4.2, and any other holding that is not already ahead gives him worse drawing odds.

Only the Ac xc type hand is getting odds to call here.

My pocket KK are ahead by far the most of the time. His aggressive betting into the PF raisor (and betting big, almost pot sized) does really not convey a lot of strength ... more an attempt to push me off the pot, and most likely with a weak Q.

I don't want the make him fold an inferior hand, and especially not a weak Q. We're still within the first 30 minutes of the tournament, and I need to accumulate chips with my good hands.

No matter what kind of draw villain is on it will be very hard for him to lay it down to my re-raise - but most of the time he'll be committing additionally 30% of his stack without getting the right odds.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)