Tournament Tactics Question

[tubbyspencer]

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Sorry if this has already been covered, but...

Any chance 8s or 6s are wild?

-- M. Ruff

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Best post in the thread.

[Vincent Lepore]

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If you play about as well as your opponents

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If I play as well as my opponents and I believe that playing 8,6 in this situation is correct then they also believe that playing in this manner is correct. If playing in this situation is not correct then I am playing against people that do not play correctly. Consequently, I want to give them the opportunity to make these types of mistakes. I agree that on the surface this play looks like a damned if you do and damned if you don't type of situation. What may make the play close is what happens if you do win the hand. I'm not sure that if you win the hand you only double your chances of making the money. If you win your stack is now more than double. But what doubling does is make you a lot more dangerous to medium and even big stacks. If you move in with a stack that will have a significant impact on a mediocre stack they are less likely to call. So besides increasing your survival time you also increase your stealing power, so winning the hand might more than double your chances of surviving. This fact is why I will sometimes move earlier than might seem correct from a tactical point of view. It is a strategic consideration that will normally cause you to go bust more than %50 of the time. But it is something that I do only when the making the money is not significant. 1 mil first prize... Hmmm....ok you might be right. This is a closer decision than I gave it credit. I will think some more but I still think I muck.

BTW - I won my way into the 1500 Limit Holdem Tournament today (and then some but my backers won't let me use what I won for the Final, more than enough, so I'm gonna do this one). I hope that all of my fans on this forum will follow my play. This is my first WSOP event ever so as the good TWOPLUSTWO people that I know you are wish me luck.

Vince

[d10]

With a 20k stack your chances of making the money are very close to 0. 40k would do way more than double your chances. Even stealing the blinds here and moving to 30k would be more than double.

Good luck at the WSOP.

[David Sklansky]

HOH Volume II will cover situations like this in detail. Don't miss it.

[pokergripes]

I think the point of a raise to 15k is four-fold (the first of these is the original poster's idea, not intending to take credit for it):

--First, even if I'm not folding on a flop of, e.g., AKQ rainbow with no heart (because I could be beating 2-3, might hit an eight or six on the turn or river, have far too much of my stack committed, etc.), the typical player does not want to take that chance by just calling my 15k pre-flop, and will therefore feel some pressure (even if it's analytically incorrect, since it's not his job to bust me) to make sure I'm busted if I lose...nobody likes the "chip and a chair" thing to make them look dumb in front of their peers.

--Second, 15k indicates more strength than all-in (looks like you're inviting a call), and you might pick up a bit of fold equity that way.

--Third, it looks odd enough to some players that it confuses them, and therefore might make them less likely to think it through clearly (and clear thinking would lead to a call for sure from the bb with pretty much any two if you push, assuming the sb folds).

--Fourth, if the first point above doesn't result in me getting set all in pre-flop (that is, neither the sb or bb who calls is the kind of opp who thinks it's his job to bust me), then it also could get checked down after the flop if the caller totally misses (obviously pretty unlikely, but not 0%), and in that case I retain ten antes and a chair.

I'm not saying the 15k is the "right play", but rather, that all the choices are pretty grim in this situation, the push-versus-fold decision is on the cusp (strong views in this thread that it's "obviously" a push or "obviously" a fold notwithstanding), and when something is that close to a toss-up, doing something different might be better (and a flat call with the six eight is clearly bad news).

On the other hand, I was pretty drunk when I asked the question at 3am this morning, and now lean more towards the push than the 15k (after reading the responses), above points notwithstanding. But I think they're all pretty close alternatives (assuming randomized players and no prior hand experience with them to help the analysis).

[pokergripes]

I do wish you luck, hope you win a bunch of money in it (in which case you are buying the beers for me and for howard treesong, not vice-versa) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jonnyd]

estimated release date of HOH2?

[ggbman]

I havent event read a single response yet, but this question is incredibly contignet upon the specific stacks of the blinds. if they both both around 50k, it's a push becasue they need at least a king high to stick in 40% of their stack against someone with your range of hands, and even then some players might fold. If the chip leader with 200k is in the blind, then it's an wasy muck givne the range of hands he is calling you with,

[d10]

Blinds have around 150k each.

[Vincent Lepore]

I finished 84th. Paid $1810. I don't feel too bad though. First WSOP event I have ever played and I made the money.

Vince