AA raise the river?

newhizzle · #1 12-01-2005, 05:59 PM

villain is 21/14/1.5 and a regular in the 50 game, the only note i really have on him is "c/r bluffs the turn" but that dosent even really apply here, anyway he dosent seem to get out of line too often

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...

WillyTrailer · #2 12-01-2005, 06:04 PM

I'd raise it.

-WT

#3 12-01-2005, 06:22 PM

I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

RED_RAIN · #4 12-01-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

MarkD · #5 12-01-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be way out to lunch here but villian's play, on every street, is quite consistent with QT, probably QTs. It is also quite consistent with KK, JJ, and 99. Although KK may not have bet the flop so I think it is the least likely.

I guess the only debatable street for QT is pre-flop but hero open raised from teh CO which is a steal. QT would certainly play here and may occasionaly raise, and I think he would be right to raise occasionaly and is certainly right to play the hand. I don't know how you can totally dismiss QT here.

Lmn55d · #6 12-01-2005, 07:08 PM

hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.

#7 12-01-2005, 07:27 PM

I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.

Tex

#8 12-01-2005, 06:48 PM

Raise this river, call a three bet.

Given the PF action and the action on the flop, we know Q10 is possible but unlikely. Raise the river, and I would just call a three bet, because I dont like capping in this spot without the nuts.

Tex

chaosuk · #9 12-01-2005, 08:48 PM

I might raise by through impulse, but upon inspection this is a call to for me. You've got to be better than 67% here to raise - you're about as likely to fold to his 3 bet as he is to your raise - not very.

For my money Q-10s is very much in play:

His stats - 21/14/1.5 , net him 3-betting the cutoff seal with Q-10s, though a higher AF would make it nor likely (sample size?)

Notes: 'c-r raises on a bluff' again fairly consistent behaviour with this pre-flop raise.

Flop play - not quite so sure, very consistent with say J-9-x; but he may have been setting himself up for the check-bluff raise on the turn (as appears to be his way)

newhizzle · #10 12-01-2005, 08:57 PM

well i thought about it for a minute and ended up calling, even though after his flop and turn action i was pretty much convinced he had a lower set, anyway, he had JJ and i think that raising and calling a 3-bet would have been the correct play here