Difficult Turn Decision

[Mempho]

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You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise.

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This is what made this difficult. I was looking super-LAG on this table but it was because I'd been running hot (see stack size). I had been getting premium and otherwise raisable hands a lot and I was at about 30/15....which is about 50% higher than my normal preflop stats would indicate. Also, my flop aggression was running high as a result of good made hands and continuation bets...about 7.00. This makes me think that I could get him to push the flop with TPTK/Any 2 pair and hence the "crappy" flop bet. Nevertheless, in retrospect, I need to bet the flop harder because a) he's so rocky he might not play TPTK this way on this board even against a LAG and b) I still should not be giving him correct odds for a flush or nut str8 draw. I was trying to "invite" him to push here and quite frankly, he has never struck me as the type to raise a naked flush or str8 draw...even against me.

This is what made this difficult. I was looking super-LAG on this table but it was because I'd been running hot (see stack size). I had been getting premium and otherwise raisable hands a lot and I was at about 30/15....which is about 50% higher than my normal preflop stats would indicate. Also, my flop aggression was running high as a result of good made hands and continuation bets...about 7.00. This makes me think that I could get him to push the flop with TPTK/Any 2 pair and hence the "crappy" flop bet. Nevertheless, in retrospect, I need to bet the flop harder because a) he's so rocky he might not play TPTK this way on this board even against a LAG and b) I still should not be giving him correct odds for a flush or nut str8 draw. I was trying to "invite" him to push here and quite frankly, he has never struck me as the type to raise a naked flush or str8 draw...even against me.



You got it.

[swolfe]

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Typical WA/WB situation.

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this is not at all a WAWB situation. if we're ahead, we may only be slightly ahead of a flush draw (with a redraw, of course). if we're behind a straight, we still have a 36% chance of boating up. we're only way ahead of one/two pair or lower set and only way behind TTT.

[scdavis0]

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Typical WA/WB situation.

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this is not at all a WAWB situation. if we're ahead, we may only be slightly ahead of a flush draw (with a redraw, of course). if we're behind a straight, we still have a 36% chance of boating up. we're only way ahead of one/two pair or lower set and only way behind TTT.

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Thank You. WA/WB is the most mis/overused term on these forums. I even see people applying it to river situations.

This couldn't be LESS of a WA/WB situation.


Here is a text book WA/WB situation. You call a raise with AK and the flop comes K22 rainbow. There is no hand that villain can have that is drawing to greater than 2 outs when behind nor have you drawing to greater than 2 outs when ahead. The idea behind identifying such situations is that large bets and raises are likely -EV in these spots.

[aba20]

If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.

[Gregg777]

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If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.

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I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

[tradingman123]

If you are running super LAG, I would just get it all in right there and then on the flop.

As played, I think you have to ck this turn given villain's less than average trickiness and rock status.

[aba20]

Quote:
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If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.


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I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

I hope this doesn't sound to harsh, but you are a moron if you don't want to get all your money in on this flop. If you bet pot he raises you can easily move the rest in on the flop. If he has a flopped straight you have great equity. By only betting half the pot on the flop hero couldn't get all the money in on the flop and had a very dificult decision on the turn.

[Mempho]

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Quote:
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If you bet close to the pot on the flop this hand would be very easy to play.


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I don't think it is "very easy". But since you say so, please explain.

Leptyne outlined it extremely well with the overbet.

I hope this doesn't sound to harsh, but you are a moron if you don't want to get all your money in on this flop. If you bet pot he raises you can easily move the rest in on the flop. If he has a flopped straight you have great equity. By only betting half the pot on the flop hero couldn't get all the money in on the flop and had a very dificult decision on the turn.

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That decision does have a price...especially against a rock...and that decision is consistency. I bet half the pot because I try to keep my bet sizes consistent...whether I have ace high, an overpair, a set, 2 pair, quads, or a draw. I realize that this seems easy in a vacuum, and people may argue otherwise, but there is value in keeping flop play consistent even if it costs EV on a particular hand. That is, of course, beyond the scope of this discussion. At 100NL or less, people aren't paying enough attention to make this matter. I do feel that the metagame is important at this level, however.

If I was against a superfish, I would make the push here, however, because I'm likely to get called by a TPMK or something of that nature...and most players will know why I did that (because the guy is a superfish)...so it wouldn't be a breaking of that consistency.

[aba20]

You should be betting more on draw heavy flops with A-high so you can protect your hand when you have a real hand. A half pot flop bet on K83r is fine but not on T96 suited.