5/10 NL 67s UTG

[CollegePlayer]

6 Handed. Hero UTG 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] $1500

Hero Raises $50. Button($1200) calls, BB($1500) calls.

Button is LAP. BB is TAP.

FLOP A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero Bets $200, Button folds, BB calls.

TURN 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero checks

RIVER J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB raises all-in??

What do you think of my play throughout the hand, and what is your action here on the river?

[1800GAMBLER]

So i was thinking about this don't bet if a raise makes you sick stuff. If a raise makes you sick then it has to be a tough decision, not one you can easily fold not one you can easily call. So a raise that makes you sick is a raise from a player who could be bluffing else has you beat and it has perfect frequency regarding the pot size so that if you fold or call you make $0, your call has no EV at all.

Ok, so if our action after that players raises has no EV then why do we care? We aren't losing or gainning anything? It doesn't make us sick, it just doesn't make us money. Yet what about the bet before it?

This hand. Your opponent could easily read you for a single ace here while he could also read you for the flush, meaning he could be checkraising his trip jacks or he could be checkraising his AJ full house. Meaning, this should be a raise that makes us sick, because it's close and we have no idea what is the best play. So our play here is 0EV.

Yet, our bet is +EV easily. The player here could likely have a single ace and those times he calls. Meaning our play is getting us paid off, yet sometimes it's getting raised that EV is even.

So even though a raise here does make us sick we should still bet.

Anyhow, there are still situations in which a raise does make us sick because in these situation we think it's likely the raise is coming, meaning at least 50% of the time we are going to get raised. So if a player raises 60% of his possible hands here and it's evenly likely he has you beat or you are winning then you should not raise. An example being you raised preflop with Ax and the flop came Ts 8s 6o when the BB called.

So to complete this 'don't bet when a raise makes you sick' it should be 'don't bet when a raise makes you sick and you expect to be raised more than 50% of the time.' Effective odds style. I win. Sklansky loses.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
'don't bet when a raise makes you sick and you expect to be raised more than 50% of the time.'

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the number is much less than 50%. It would be correct if:
A: There was no money in the pot.
B: Your opponent never folds.
C: Your opponent never wins when he calls you.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

So to complete this 'don't bet when a raise makes you sick' it should be 'don't bet when a raise makes you sick and you expect to be raised more than 50% of the time.' Effective odds style. I win. Sklansky loses.


[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit. I was keeping this a secret. Nice post.

I think the right wording is "don't bet if a raise will make you sick and you expect to be raised at least as often as you will be paid off by a worse hand".

Guy.

[cero_z]

Hi 1800 Gambler,

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so if our action after that players raises has no EV then why do we care?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing something quite important and fundamental. We care because it means that our bet was very -EV. So while our decision to fold may be 0 EV once we've bet, our EV for the whole hand would've been much better had we checked.

I think this player has either a slowplayed Aces full, and is trapping someone he believes to be drawing dead (doesn't suspect a flush draw given the large pre-flop raise), or has a bigger flush (his check-call, check, check-raise pattern is most consistent with that). Only CP can tell us if this guy's tricky enough to smooth-call with AA pre-flop. Obviously, given my guesses, I think the fold is mandatory.

[CollegePlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi 1800 Gambler,

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so if our action after that players raises has no EV then why do we care?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing something quite important and fundamental. We care because it means that our bet was very -EV. So while our decision to fold may be 0 EV once we've bet, our EV for the whole hand would've been much better had we checked.

I think this player has either a slowplayed Aces full, and is trapping someone he believes to be drawing dead (doesn't suspect a flush draw given the large pre-flop raise), or has a bigger flush (his check-call, check, check-raise pattern is most consistent with that). Only CP can tell us if this guy's tricky enough to smooth-call with AA pre-flop. Obviously, given my guesses, I think the fold is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]
I havent seen him play extensively. But I think AA is definitely posible here.

[tewall]

The problem is a bet may cost you the whole pot. If you bet and are raised, you lose not just your bet, but the whole pot, which you might have won had you checked. (or you lose your whole stack if you call and are beat, when you could have just lost what you had already put in)

This really depends on the player. If you're playing someone straightforward who will often call with a worse hand and whose raise means you can fold, the bet makes sense. If you're playing someone tricky, it could easily be -EV.

This situation occurs often in different contexts. You can be much more aggressive against fish than against good players.

[SpaceAce]

The way you played this hand screams flush draw but he raised you all-in when your flush came. I want to tell you to fold but that sounds so weak...

SpaceAce

[AJo Go All In]

thought i should mention this, opponent should be less likely to put hero on a flush draw given that he raised UTG and the Ah is on board.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
thought i should mention this, opponent should be less likely to put hero on a flush draw given that he raised UTG and the Ah is on board.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a point there but it was an open-raise from the cutoff in a six-handed game. I think that makes hearts without the Ace a little more likely for the hero.

SpaceAce