Oh my!! Should I risk my TOURNAMENT LIFE!! so early?!?!?! - Page 2

schwza · #1 11-23-2005, 11:45 AM

i'd make the first pre-flop call without any problem. the second is closer. there is still some chance that utg will make the unlikely limp-call-reraise and kill your hand. also, with 1-2 presumed big pairs out there, you have to worry more about set over set. a flop like AK6 looks pretty good but could easily cost you your stack, so you implied odds are not as good as they look. i'd probably call, but it's close.

on the flop, the only hands you really don't want MP1 to have are AsKs, 77, 88. a lot of other hands are cold calling here - including things like AKo sometimes, 99+, and some other hands. despite what you *know*, there is sometimes that both hold AQ/AK hands or can get away from a small overpair and you win the pot uncontested. also sometimes you get heads up with one of them with AsKs/AsQs and you're 50-50 with a ton of dead money.

i agree that a call is no good. push it in.

WinBig · #2 11-23-2005, 11:45 AM

Why are you concerned with the call by MP1? Did you think you had any FE against UTG+1? If you put UTG+1 on a big pair then the same can be said for MP1. I doubt MP1 has a hand like AK and he certainly doesn't have a flush draw or 86 so your chances of winning the pot go down if MP1 is in there but if you hit your straight or set the chances are pretty high that you'll triple up. If I'm going all-in here I want three-way action. Am I missing something?

woodguy · #3 11-23-2005, 11:59 AM

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Why are you concerned with the call by MP1?

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Because he really affect my equity.

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Did you think you had any FE against UTG+1?

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I stated in the post I *knew* he was coming along, and I had 40% pot equity against him if he has what I think he has, I'm getting a good price and not worried about FE.

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I doubt MP1 has a hand like AK and he certainly doesn't have a flush draw or 86 so your chances of winning the pot go down if MP1 is in there but if you hit your straight or set the chances are pretty high that you'll triple up. If I'm going all-in here I want three-way action. Am I missing something?

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I thought he *may* have a flush draw, but he probably raises it.

Schwza outlines my concerns fairly well.

I'm trying to figure if my loss in pot equity if MP1 comes along is more than the chips he's putting in (i.e. if he comes, is that a good thing or bad thing.)

Regards,
Woodguy

kuro · #4 11-23-2005, 11:47 AM

Pushing is ev neutral if you knew both come along because you're about 40% vs. two over pairs and 25% against say an over pair and overcards+flush draw and given the pot odds are going to be like 2.5:1. Factor in the times you get it heads up against an overpair and its a push. It's just high variance and you second guess it when you crash out.

bugstud · #5 11-23-2005, 11:48 AM

I'm praying both have overpairs here and get it awwwwwwwwwl eeeeeeeen

Rduke55 · #6 11-23-2005, 11:51 AM

Interesting spot. The flat call is weird. Originally I would have guessed a big pair or maybe AK. Now it's maybe AKs or a terrible "slow-played" big pair (with one spade perhaps?).
I'm not sure you can get rid of MP1 here. He did just put in 1/3 of his stack.
But if they each have a big pair then you have 10 outs twice so a push seems reasonable.

Stipe_fan · #7 11-23-2005, 11:53 AM

I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

woodguy · #8 11-23-2005, 12:01 PM

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The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

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That was my initial fear, but doesn't a flush draw raise on the flop?

Regards,
Woodguy

woodguy · #9 11-23-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like your read on the original raiser. It definitely appears he has an overpair, probably AA-QQ. The cold caller in MP1 is on a big draw, most likely a flush draw.

Two of your outs, 4 ,8 are tainted to a flush so I would not consider them outs. Thus you only have six clean outs, if you include the red sixes. This, in my mind, would necessitate a fold. I don't think you need to put all your chips into the pot versus an overpair and a big draw.

If you do decide to push, I believe the apparent overpair would call and of course the big draw would call since he is getting nearly the correct pot odds.

Stipe

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That, of course is my biggest concern.

If we put MP1 specifically on the flush draw, my equity drops to 26%, but the pot increases to 296 BB's and I'm paying for 28% of the pot, so even if we put him ONLY on AKs, its still really close.

If we put MP1 on a range that inlcudes more than AKs, I think I have enough equity to still go tarzan on his ass.

Regards,
Woodguy

SossMan · #10 11-23-2005, 11:55 AM

MMMMooooooooooooo