Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play

[Alobar]

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

[peterchi]

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is.

Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range...

[kidcolin]

Yeah, pretty much anything he's folding he'd likely fold for 1 bet, too.

I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

[fizzleboink]

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I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

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Ok so since people are still saying you should call I'll put in some more reasonable numbers into my formula.

A = 0.8
B = 0.4 (I think 0.7 is way too high)
C = 1
D = 0.75

Hero needs to be ahead only ~56% of the time to make raising the correct play. TheMetetron has already said it is greater than 90%... but even if you disagree with that, surely it is higher than 56%!

[Alobar]

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is.

Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range...

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he called 3 cold PF, that screams PP or Big ace, hes done nothing but call multiple bets post flop, he isnt going to suddenly wake up and realize his hand sucks now. He also is always calling 2 if he has any K and prolly a big part of the time with a 9. If he just has a big ace that called the turn with a flush draw, hes prolly folding for 1 bet.

either way it doesnt matter, you should be raising this HU vs UTG, the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better.

[peterchi]

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you should be raising this HU vs UTG

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i agree with this



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the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better.

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hm. ok i can buy this.



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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I pondered this one for a while. Of course the first sentence is true. I think I've been convinced that the second sentence is true.



And fizzle, thanks for writing out the equation, great work.

You guys have won me over.

[oxymoron]

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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.


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I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time

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Are Party players really this dumb or are you guys playing micro limits? Yes there was crazy action preflop and he called three cold. Everyone slows down on the turn and there are a lot of loose passives that give up on the river. I think facing him with two cold will scare him away the majority of the time while calling here will get him to put an extra bet in the pot.

[Knockwurst]

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.


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I like very much schooling, and you speak with much authority.

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News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.


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What is the basis for your assumptions that he "just about never has a 4 here" and that our hand is good ">90% of the time" here? I understand it's your opinion, but you make it seem like this is a given without need for further explanation.

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Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.


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What % of the time is the player behind us going to call 2 cold with a worse hand? Even if he is a calling station and will call with a K (and sometimes less), I think the times he calls two cold with a K or worse is less than those times when he calls (or even raises) with a better hand. This is the one problem with fizzle's interesting mathematical analysis -- he does not provide for those times when the player behind us has us beat.

I also think that those times when the original bettor three bets a worse hand is very low, and lower than those times when he is holding a 4.

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I agree that the overcall from the player behind us is not guaranteed, but don't we have to consider the 1 BB already put in by the original bettor so that the overcall is greater than 1 BB if one considers those times when the player behind us calls with a worse hand.

Also I don't agree that the raise necessarily has a value of more than 1 BB when taking into consideration those times when the player behind us calls (or raises) with a better hand along with those times where the original bettor does.

IMO, this seems like one of those times where the liklihood that you will lose two bets is higher than those times when you win more than two bets so that a call is the best play.

I'm not saying your wrong, but before taking your opinion of the correct play as fact, I'd like a little deeper knowledge of your underlying assumptions.

Simple enough? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[kidcolin]

Yes they're really this dumb. A big K will call this always. QQ-TT will call this > 80% of the time by a guy like this. A 9 will call a lot. He'll sometimes fold, but a lot of the hands he's folding is a lone spade and something like QJ or JT that missed.

Again, you can't guarantee he's overcalling, either. So even if he folds faced with two, the one BB you get from UTG is worth it.