Fade the Colts the rest of the season?

[DeucesUp]

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I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

[legend42]

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far.

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That's a valid point. But they've easily handled everything that's come their way, which is all they can do (and being able to consistently destroy bad teams is just as important as winning the tough games as far as ATS is concerned).

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I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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You're probably right, but more because variance would be more likely to catch up to them than any on-the-field reason. They're unquestionably the best team in the NFL, and it's not close.

Are they one of those super elite teams who can keep outrunning the line (almost) week after week? Maybe not, but they have all the makings of one. I decided months ago that no matter how tempting the line looked, I wouldn't fade them all season. It's a rule that's done well for me so far, and I'm not about to break it now.

There are so many better values out there.

[bottomset]

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[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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by the time they get to the playoffs they will have played a fairly tough schedule, and they have been really damn good so far