NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked Trend - Explained (long)

[NoChance]

The NCAABB season is getting started. Last year I posted picks that fit the unranked vs ranked team trend. A couple people have already sent me private messages inquiring about this system. I figure now is as good a time as any to explain it again and begin to prepare for the season.

What is the trend?

Back when I was in college, I lived in an apartment off-campus with five other guys. All of us were big into gambling on sports. Just like with Hold Em, I tried to search the internet and read books for as much information as I could find on sports gambling. One book I read contained a trend for betting on unranked teams if they were favored against ranked teams and playing at home. This trend worked so well, it’s the only one that has stuck with me for close to 20 years now. To my knowledge, this trend has not had a losing season the entire duration. I think the worst it has done is something like 18-16. The best it has done was 25-5. It usually hits for somewhere between 55-65% each season. If someone has access to a database and can check the history, it would be much appreciated. Please don’t ask me the name of the book. People ask me every year. It’s been way too long since I found this trend and I cannot remember exactly where I found it.

Why does it work?

In the NFL Joe Public loves to bet favorites and overs. The same type of thing happens with NCAA mens basketball. Joe Public loves to bet the Ranked teams. When a ranked team shows up as an underdog, Joe Public takes special notice and usually pounds the ranked team. This creates value for the unranked team because it keeps the line a couple points lower than it actually should be. A second reason this trend works so well is that you always have a play on the home team. The crowd is always into it because it’s a huge game. A third reason is that it’s usually a conference opponent and it’s a big rivalry and each team knows each other very well.

The games will look ugly much like the BSP picks in the NFL. However, one thing to note is that the teams we are playing are often teams that fall just outside the ranking and are getting votes but Joe Public often does not realize this. Sometimes we will bet against a team one week and they will lose and fall out of the rankings. Then we will be betting on that team the following week. There are usually a couple of teams each year that bounce in and out of the ranking and we are against them one week and for them the next week. Last year those teams were Alabama and Wisconsin.

What makes a game a pick?

1. A Ranked team is playing against an Unranked team
2. The Unranked team must be playing on it’s home court
3. The Unranked team must be the favorite according to the opening line.
4. Bet on the Unranked team if the above conditions are met.

*Note that if the game opened as a pick, the game does not fit the trend no matter which direction the line moves. On a related point, if the unranked team opens as an underdog but ends up a favorite, this also does not fit as a trend play.

When will you start to see games that fit the trend?

Early in the season, most ranked teams are playing invitational tournaments and holiday tournaments. When they are not playing in these tournaments, they are usually playing at home against smaller schools who are willing to travel (play away) to these top schools in hopes of getting some national exposure. Thus, with all these ranked teams playing these tournaments on neutral courts or playing these smaller schools at home, you really don’t see many games that fit into this trend until the conference games start up. This is usually the first or second week of January. On rare occasions, there may be one or two games in the last week of December that fit the trend. Once the conference games start, you will see anywhere from zero to five games a week for about nine weeks. Each year there are usually about 25-30 games that fit the trend.

How do you find the games?

First, I want to explain that I do not handicap these games what-so-ever. I simply look for games that fit the criteria I outlined above. I go to www.covers.com and navigate to the NCAABB matchups section. I use www.covers.com for three reasons. First, there are different polls. Sometimes a team is ranked in one poll but not another. Covers.com uses the same poll the television networks use. Those are what Joe Public sees. Those are the rankings I am looking for. Second, on the matchups page, covers.com automatically migrates the ranked teams to the top of the list so I don’t have to search through a long list to find the games. Third, if you scroll down the matchup page, it will list games that will be played for the next couple days. It makes it easy to look ahead and see which games may end up being plays when the lines come out and be ready for them.

When to place the bet?

People always ask me when to place the bet. This is tough because nobody really knows which way the line will end up moving. The following is the general guideline I use when making this decision. Hopefully it makes sense.

If the ranked team is ranked somewhere between 15 and 25, I simply go ahead and place my bet as early as possible. The sharps seem to pound the underdogs more than Joe Public pounds the ranked team and the line actually moves against us the longer we wait. Note that this is not what happens EVERY time but for the most part it works this way.

If the ranked team is ranked in the top ten, I feel sometimes it’s best to wait. As stated earlier, Joe Public loves betting ranked teams. They love them even more the higher they are ranked and getting points. In these situations, Joe Public pounds it hared and often moves the line in our favor (again, not always but it’s a good general rule).

If the ranked team is somewhere between 10 and 15, use your own judgment. If the team is hot and on a huge winning streak and has recently gotten tons of public exposure, it may be best to wait as the public exposure will draw attention to them and Joe Public will be active. If the team has been relatively quiet, you may as well just make the bet early as the sharps will probably move it against us.

Last year’s results

If anyone followed along last year, you will remember that it started hot going 14-3 and then went cold the last week going 0-4 before the conference tournaments started. It ended up 14-7 for the year. To my knowledge, it is not normal for the trend to tail off the way it did last year but it might not be a bad idea to keep an eye on it towards the end of February and beginning of March. Last year I posted a summary with one week to go (before the bad week) summarizing the season. The average cover against the spread was 7.7 points which means the average win straight up was about 10-12 points. This is amazing when looking at the list of teams (and their records) we bet against. Here were the results for the first 17 games. (Like an idiot, I didn’t update my sheet after that following week. I don’t have those results but someone could look them up if needed).

12/11/04
(13) Louisville…..74
Florida…………...70….-3…..L(7)…….0-1

(24) Wisconsin….54
Marquette……….63…..+1….W(10)…..1-1

12/29/04
(13) Alabama…...62
Wisconsin………76…..-7.5…W(6.5)….2-1

(20) G. Washington...65
W. Virginia…………71…-3.5…W(2.5)…3-1

01/05/05
(18) Alabama…...56
Vanderbuilt……..70…..-2.5…W(11.5)…4-1

(23) W. Virginia…46
Villanova………...84….-4…..W(34)….5-1

01/08/05
(15) Iowa………69
Ohio St…………81…..-3…..W(8)…...6-1

01/10/05
(9) Connecticut...65
Oklahoma……...77….-4.5…W(7.5)….7-1

01/11/05
(21) Alabama……64
Arkansas………...61….-5…L(8)….7-2

01/16/05
(8) Georgia Tech...68
N.C. State……….76….+1.5..W(9.5)…8-2

01/20/05
(25) Marquette….72
DePaul………….85….-3…..W(10)…9-2

01/30/05
(21) Georgia Tech..71
Maryland…………79…-4…W(4)…10-2

02/05/05
(14) Alabama…..54
Florida…………85…..-4….W(27)…11-2

02/08/05
(4) Boston College..65
Notre Dame………68…-1..W(2)….12-2

02/12/05
(24) Pacific……..64
Utah St…………63….-8.5…L(9.5)…12-3

02/20/05
(15) Pittsburgh…72
Villanova………80….-5….W(3)….13-3

02/26/05
(25) Texas Tech…63
Texas A & M……85…-2.5..W(19.5)…14-3

A list of the teams we bet against:

Louisville (24-4)
Wisconsin (17-7)
Alabama (21-6) 3 times
G. Washington (17-6)
W. Virginia (18-8)
Iowa (17-10)
Connecticut (19-6)
Georgia Tech (16-9) 2 times
Marquette (18-9)
Boston College (23-2)
Pittsburgh (18-7)
Texas Tech (17-8)

Bankroll comments

It is important to note that you should use good bankroll management. It is very important to play the same amount on each game. Take last year for example, the trend lost the final four games of the year (not listed above). If someone became over-confident and increased their bets because we were 14-3, they got burned. It makes no sense at all work hard for your money and then give it all away on one or two games. Stay consistent!

A couple more things

Do not use this trend during the conference tournaments or during March madness. I tried to do it the first few years and it did not perform well. Once the regular conference games are complete, that is it. No more trend.

Remember, Vegas will not make an unranked team an underdog unless they truly deserve it. Think about it. Vegas knows Joe Public will be all over the Ranked teams. Vegas does not set itself up to fail.

Also, Mondays can be tricky. The ranking change on Mondays so be careful to check the new rankings. If you use Cover.com like I do and look ahead, just make sure to check again on Monday morning to make sure things have not changed and a new ranked team has snuck in there and is all of the sudden a play (or vice versa).

For now, just sit back and enjoy the early season tournaments and let these ranked teams crush the smaller schools. It makes Joe Public like them even more. These first 5 or 6 weeks also allows for the rankings to shake out a little bit as well. But get ready, it wont be long!

Comments and questions welcome….

[TwoNiner]

It's a good one.

[Allin72]

very interesting, will definitely give this a shot. thanks

Thanks for posting this trend again. It was great last year.

This is great. I did the same thing last year with great success (although I didn't follow it as a strict system). NoChance, thanks for taking the time to write this up.

[WackityWhiz]

I can't imagine how much the sportsbooks made off these games, I bet it was ridiculous. I remember playing against this trend a few times, I believe I went 1-2... I'm not doing that this year.

Awesome write-up, thanks for taking the time to compile all that info. You Da Man

[SunOfBeach]

thankyou for this.

i already printed your write up...its funny, bc i go to wake forest ranked 18 versus florida, unranked and they came out at -1 i believe but its at a neutral court.....i had already bet against them (totally overrated) during the first two home games and covered...the line ended around +2 for wake...and it looks like they will lose....fantastic write-up

[LLXC]

That game did not apply to the trend however because the opening line was a PK.

[NoChance]

I have not even started looking for games that fit the trend yet. Most teams are either playing in tournaments on neutral courts or are at home hosting smaller schools that are looking for a little national attention. You wont see these ranked teams traveling to another "decent" team's home court until late in Decemeber or even January. There is just no reason for these schools to do it. I think there were three games in late December last year that qualified. The bulk of it occurs during conference play in January and February. There usually are several ranked teams that will have played 8-10 home games before they even play on the road (not counting the tournaments). Again, Joe Public doesn't realize this and that also adds value to the "trend".

Here's hoping for a great season!!!