Party 10/20: KQo SB vs. CO steal

There'll a lot of times where he'll peel one off, pick up a spade draw and then fire a desperation on the river. He's reasonably aggressive, hasn't given us reason to believe he has a hand yet, has a big range, and the board is pretty non-threatening. So yes.

The other option is to check-fold the turn (which is just bad against some players).

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
15 combos of AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a guy with his stats is capping AQ preflop.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then I usually bet.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
15 combos of AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a guy with his stats is capping AQ preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

At second thoughts, I agree. It should be discounted to maybe 3-5 (some have much respect for the 3-bet)

[me454555]

What about the times when someone called the turn w/a hand like Ax w/1 spade and might fold on the river? I didnt do the calculations but I think that could represent a significant portion of his hands. Hands like AK and AQ which he might fold to your river bet but check behind if you call. If someone could do the calculations on that I think it would be interesting to see what the stats say. Right now I feel its still 1) Check fold 2) bet/fold 3) check call

[chio]

i think this is a good spot to bet again on the river, hoping he either has a worse hand or will fold a low pp or ace high 1 out of 7 times.

given the texture of the board on the turn, i don't think that his turn call necessarily commits him to showdown, as any spade, any Q, and any T would call the turn, and could be planning to fold the river UI

plus betting protects you being bluffed out by worse hands when you check

like you said, he opens a lot of hands (esp in steal position). he could have peeled the flop with anything, and called the turn with any spade, T, or Q

[adamstewart]

Just a thought:


Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] higher than about 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]??

If so, a river bet(bluff) may be in order here.


Other factors supporting a river bluff:

* he likely doesn't have a jack, or he would have raised at some point.
* he likely doesn't have a high pocket pair, or he would have raised at some point.
* the board has paired, making it less likley for him to have paired the board.
* the flop and turn were fairly draw heavy, and the river wouldn't have helped any of those draws.


I think I'd bet this river, expecting to take it down more than 1 in 7.5 times.



Adam

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single higher than about 7 ??

[/ QUOTE ]

In a HU situation there's basically no freaking difference between the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You could bet here hoping to fold an ace, but that's about it (and admittedly, a reasonable number of players would fold a weak naked A here).

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't you guys think villain would call the turn with any single higher than about 7 ??

[/ QUOTE ]

In a HU situation there's basically no freaking difference between the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You could bet here hoping to fold an ace, but that's about it (and admittedly, a reasonable number of players would fold a weak naked A here).

[/ QUOTE ]


You also bet here because there's a chance you have the best hand. .... but you don't know it so if you check, you give villain opportunity to bluff you out of the pot (with say, his broken draw).


Secondly, there is a difference between 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], although the difference may be slight.



Adam