$55's... You have no idea how strong I am... or do you? - Page 4

bigt439 · #31 11-07-2005, 05:45 PM

Alright interesting discussion so far.

My favorite development is johnnybeef asking how I don't know what to do here and then lacky and apathy proceeding to offer completely opposite advice.

I'm not going to say what I did yet, but right now I believe it is a call. I also really don't like open pushing at all and Apathy's vote of confidence on that is good enough for me to not go down that route.

When raising here I am planning on folding to a push from the sb and calling one from the BB. I really don't think that BB's repush range here is particularily small and I'm getting 2:1 on my money. It's not optimal, but I don't think I can fold given that price. I think this guy is pushing back with (very roughly):

22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,A2o+,KTo+,QJo

We are over 53% against this range, so while you may argue his range is smaller than this I don't think it is ever siginificantly enough to make us a big dog. Add in the dead money and I think we have a call. While I know this is a fairly incomplete analysis because I'm not taking into account chip EV and other tournament aspects, I'm just trying to hilite some of the main issues in my thought process. Keep it coming, I'd love to see some of these respected posters defending their move.

EDIT: Even though I think my range is reasonable, I think people will balk at it, and maybe rightly so. Before that discussion gets goign I'd like to say that against 22+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo we're still over 40%. Neither of these ranges take into account that villain could be making a move ever. That is all.

bigt439 · #32 11-07-2005, 05:51 PM

God damnit. Nevermind.

Apathy · #33 11-07-2005, 05:53 PM

With no read you really think people repush that many hands?

I would think something like 88+ A-10+ KQ,being generous, but if this is just a question of what range the have i'm sure you know the appropraite action to take from then on based on what you think and the pot size.

bigt439 · #34 11-07-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With no read you really think people repush that many hands?

I would think something like 88+ A-10+ KQ,being generous, but if this is just a question of what range the have i'm sure you know the appropraite action to take from then on based on what you think and the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

For argument's sake, we're 36% against that range. But I can't see someone folding 77 or KJs there very often. I can however see people going buck with random hands like sc's or the like, so a slightly large range is a very hack way to somewhat account for this.

And yeah, if I hammered out a range I could almost always make the right decision, but there's more to it than that. I'm interested on the intial raise (which has kind of been covered) and people's repush ranges. And since people on this forum are all over the place on this hand I'm kind of interested to see where it goes.

Too bad about your bustout in the EPT event, I'm sure you had a sick time though. Toronto for Rudi's going away party Nov. 19?

microbet · #35 11-07-2005, 06:34 PM

I really expect to make my decisions here based on reads of SB and BB and 50 or 100 chips different in either HERO's or BB's stacks would make a big difference too.

I do put myself in the situation often enough where I'm saying I'll fold if big stack pushes but call if other stack (still around 10BBs) pushes. One sure thing is I don't want to do this if SB is a serial pwner. A read on BB is much harder to use here because a seeming rock can be a pushbot and a LAG can think A2 is the nuts in his spot. I think the average scared coward though has a little fairly narrow range here, more like the numbers in your edit and leaving the KQ's and maybe tiny PPs out.

pooh74 · #36 11-07-2005, 06:40 PM

I wouldnt be surprised if you were even money against BB's push range here.

Again, I am not saying I don't like raising in the first place- I think that should be pretty standard.

freemoney · #37 11-07-2005, 06:45 PM

without reads open pushing has to be better than raising to 275 with the plan of folding to a push.

lacky · #38 11-07-2005, 06:53 PM

to reraise a standerd raise from and obviose steal position I would put him on any pair, KQs, maybe OJs and 10Js, AXo to A10, AXs to about A8. Thats assuming no read. Getting 1.75 to 1 on my call, I would think it's good here, but I'm not real math oriented, so you can tell me if I'm wrong. I do know that the average player on this forum puts his opponent on a much narrower range than is realistic for what the average player has.

Again, this is assuming no read as stated in the OP. If the guys is uber tight or psycho it would change things.

Apathy · #39 11-07-2005, 06:59 PM

Ok, I really don't care that much if you want to call this one, I'll buy that its the better play if you think the range is right, but I do like opening with 250 or 275 rather then all in because the blinds so often just call and then play terribly out of position, usually by just check folding.

pooh74 · #40 11-07-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
to reraise a standerd raise from and obviose steal position I would put him on any pair, KQs, maybe OJs and 10Js, AXo to A10, AXs to about A8. Thats assuming no read. Getting 1.75 to 1 on my call, I would think it's good here, but I'm not real math oriented, so you can tell me if I'm wrong. I do know that the average player on this forum puts his opponent on a much narrower range than is realistic for what the average player has.

Again, this is assuming no read as stated in the OP. If the guys is uber tight or psycho it would change things.

[/ QUOTE ]

IF you assign that range you should be good then making that call.