A simulation of Variance (Long)

[Madd]

Hi,

I also made an excel-sheet with a simulation over 2000 sitngos and in your case with 12% 1st, 11% 2nd and 12% 3rd (ROI 6.4%) you will encounter dramatic swings. It's not at all unusual to drop more than 100 buy-ins and losing streaks can last more than 1k tournies.
That's why I prefer to play at a lower limit with a higher ROI.

[FieryJustice]

I keep 150 online for a reason [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From what I can tell over my first 2000 sngs, the swings are brutal...

[AgentSp]

I agree with the post that says they are surprised at how few people have tried this kind of simulation. I got the idea from a post a long time ago where EastBay mentioned how this is a simple task to perform.

The reason that I posted was that I thought the results were interesting - not so much the process involved.

However the reason that I started the simulation at all was to confirm to myself that after a large number of games the results achieved would form a normal curve. I know that this has caused some controversy in the past with it being counter intuitive as results from a single game are clearly not a smooth normal distribution.

If you don’t believe that this is the case then stop reading here. I checked the results predicted by the stats Vs my simulation and the results are close – really close for larger number of games involved.

I don’t recommend using this for any less than 50 games and preferably over 100. Open a fresh Excel sheet and :

In Cell A1 input the number of games played.

In Cell A2 input the buy in (including rake)

In Cell A3 input your ROI in decimal form (i.e if you have an ROI of 20% then input 0.2)

In Cell A4 input your target.

In Cell A5 (or anywhere in fact) input

=NORMDIST(A4/A1,A3*A2,(1.8*A2)/(A1^(0.5)),1)

Format this cell to be a percentage and viola this is the % chance of NOT achieving your target figure.