nut flush draw, but up against others with my suit

ElAnimal · #1 06-12-2005, 02:18 PM

I've lurked forever and started posting a few hands lately. From all the recent posts about how terrible new posters are for this forum, I'm thinking maybe I should just keep lurking. So I apologize ahead of time if this is regarded as "standard" or annoys anybody. I do my best not to post too much.

My question here has to do with adjusting the number of outs to a flush draw based on action that suggests I could already be up against two hands that hold either three or four of my suit. Instead of the standard 4.1-1 turn odds for a flush draw, I think I'm likely getting more like 7-1 or 8-1 in this hand. If this is the case, should I then fold the turn?

Just sat down. No real reads but both players seem reasonable post flop so far.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

I probably should've re-raised the flop.

Turn: (7 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, CO raises, Hero...

At this point, I'm fairly certain there are just 5 or 6 spades left in the deck at best. Getting just 5-1 after the raise makes me think this is a real close play. Does anybody fold this, or do you see the river regardless?

Thanks for your opinions.

A_C_Slater · #2 06-12-2005, 03:26 PM

Well... IF you are certain that there are only 5 or 6 spades left then you have about a 10-12% chance to get one on the river. Which would mean you're getting about 8.5 to call. Do you feel these two would 3bet or cap the river if you hit with their Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or even J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to make up for the missing 3.5 BB? This seems like a good implied odds dilemma. Good question. I would probably call out of annoyance (mini-tilt), but folding isn't bad.

MisterKing · #3 06-12-2005, 03:53 PM

I haven't finished reading your initial post yet, but for starters there is no need whatsoever to apologize for posting a thoughtful hand in here, as you have. You included reads, a specific question, and an invocation of concepts that rise above the specific hand in question. You're on the right track man...

A_C_Slater · #4 06-12-2005, 03:55 PM

^^Agreed. This is a better question than 95% of the questions on here.

MisterKing · #5 06-12-2005, 04:17 PM

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Just sat down. No real reads but both players seem reasonable post flop so far.

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While I'm semi-loathe to say it, buy data mining tools. Or data mine yourself using PT. At 3/6 and up there is a world of difference from one table to the next as you probably know, and being able to start at a good one is a major advantage. PM me is you have questions on this. You should NEVER have to sit down at a table not knowing at least half the players or more, IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

I probably should've re-raised the flop.

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Not in my opinion. You have a one-card nut frush draw that seems at this point to be vulnerable to re-draws from a set. What else are these guys pumping such a scary flop with? Two pair? TPTK? I'd be looking out for sets of 5's and 9's given the PF action, and the two pair hands just don't seem likely. Nobody can have TPTK with a spade, since you have the As, so that's out. Overpairs to the board seem unlikely given the PF action. This really, really looks like a set or a made flush, and maybe both.

The one other major possibility (other than a small made flush) is hands like KsJx or KsQx, where there's a straight draw, frush draw, and backdoor straight flush draw. Reads would help us know whether all this raising was tactical, or just typical Party moron chipspew.

The lesson? Don't raise now while you're on an obvious, easily detectable draw. You'd be pumping the pot while behind (when there are likely redraws to beat you even if you hit), and announcing to thinking opponents that you have the As. More importantly, I think you are right that some of your spades are out already, and pumping a draw in that scenario is somewhat perilous. It can be painful to act as a calling station, but sometimes it is the right move... here I think it might be.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (7 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, CO raises, Hero...

At this point, I'm fairly certain there are just 5 or 6 spades left in the deck at best. Getting just 5-1 after the raise makes me think this is a real close play. Does anybody fold this, or do you see the river regardless?

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That's a terrible situation to be in. CO just announced a huge hand with his stop'n'go (calling MP3's 3-bet on the flop, and then raising him on the turn), and MP3 continues to jam the pot. Lets think about how many clean spades remain in the deck: the 3s likely is dirty given the chance a set is out there, and I think its safe to say that someone has a spade flush as well, since few sane opponents are jamming with a draw to the king-high frush (KsTx maybe...). So of the 13 spades, three are on the board, one that isn't is dirty, one is in your hand, and two are quite likely in someone else's hand (MP3 or CO).

That means there are 6 left that will help. You WILL be paid off handsomely if you hit on the end, since the guy with the made flush has to see a showdown, though a naked set might slow down with four spades on the board (and he has none) at the river.

So, you can probably expect to collect 1.x (where x probably ranges between .25 and .75) extra BB on the end if you hit. IF IF IF MP3 calls instead of 3-betting the turn (and hard to say if he will) you're effectively getting 11+1.x:2, or about 6 to one on a call, with implied odds included. That's not enough. Add in the fact that MP3 might raise the turn after you call, and it gets worse.

Again, if you had reads, you might be able to tell how likely MP3 is to raise, or determine how many bets you're likely to collect on the end. If you could reasonably expect MP3 to call CO's raise, and for both to give you more than 1.x BB of extra action when you make your nut frush on the end, then this becomes a call. Given what we know, however, I'd muck it.

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Thanks for your opinions.

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Good luck to you, and see ya around the 3/6 tables.