Representing a hand

[ChipLeader]

The move could be effective at a sophisticated level- i dont feel this is the right time. Also, that line you were quoting came from my response to someone saying "you probably have the best hand right now."
I was merely pointing out theres no way you have the best hand right now, but you CAN represent it.

[lastchance]

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And any cont-bet should be for all of your stack, I think. At least that's what I do most of the time.

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You have 2300, the pot is 1500, why on earth do you push?!?!

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Because I have 2300, and the pot is 1500...

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A continuation bet is roughly half the pot, 700ish usually but i like 600 here. This leaves you with 1700 if you have to give up on the hand, there is NO good reason to push here.

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t1700 with t2700 in the middle. This pot is worth taking down, and any small bet looks fishy here, unless you're going up against a good player, which you really aren't, IMHO.

I think Durron gets shown AA/Quads 20% of the time here. He's ahead about 55% of the time. He gets AJ/AQ about 15%, and I think he gets laydowns. Finally, Villain has a something that's not good 10% of the time.

[ChipLeader]

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t1700 with t2700 in the middle. This pot is worth taking down, and any small bet looks fishy here, unless you're going up against a good player, which you really aren't, IMHO.

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The pot isnt t2700, it is t1500. Notice if you dont make the continuation bet it stays at t1500 and pushing t2300 is absurd. The continuation bet leaves them forced to push the rest or fold, exactly what pushing would do except that you can fold to a raise.
MCU Tip #3- What you have already invested in the pot doesn't matter.
Its not yours, its the pot's, and pushign nothing seems horrible. Youll get the same folds from a bet but risk less. Your decision to go after a pot shouldnt be based solely on how much youve invested already.

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I think Durron gets shown AA/Quads 20% of the time here. He's ahead about 55% of the time. He gets AJ/AQ about 15%, and I think he gets laydowns. Finally, Villain has a something that's not good 10% of the time.

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Jesus... are you kidding me?
Quads ARENT POSSIBLE... AA raises... WHAT ARE YOU AHEAD OF 55% OF THE TIME THAT CALLS PREFLOP?!

You are really going to confuse this poor original poster.

[lastchance]

You're right. Meh, I just need to think this through more.

I'm focusing a lot on the preflop action. It tells me one of two things:
Villain has AA/KK and is trapping, or Villain is a donk.

I think Villain is a donk is the better explanation, so let's go with that.

Do donks check kings behind here if they're not trappy-limp people (and I don't see a lot of these people), I don't think so. I think they fire out minbets and small bets here instead of checking.

So, Villain can't have Kx. Does Villain have 77+? I don't think so either, they're going to try to bet those.

I also think Villain has a very wide calling range here, because I think he's a donk. I think Villain could have called QJs or A2 here preflop, even though it's horrible, especially if Durron's been aggressive lately.

Weak pairs check behind, sure. Absolute junk checks behind. Kings don't. Trappers could check behind.

And I bet all-in on the pot because that's what I do with kings, 77+, and most hands that are worth anything in general, and I don't think it's close, but being able to fold to a reraise on an absolute steal where your opponent isn't a thinker is probably a good idea here.

[ChipLeader]

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Villain has AA/KK and is trapping, or Villain is a donk.

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Donk, i promise. Also, we're trying to win this pot and the flop is clearly the best place. Any hand we're ahead of will fold, and i really think donk has AQ/AJ or a low PP. Most of these hands he'll fold to the K and thats what we're after. If he has a low PP AND doesnt fold we still have 6 outs. If donk has AK or KQ we've decided were screwed regardless.

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Do donks check kings behind here if they're not trappy-limp people (and I don't see a lot of these people), I don't think so. I think they fire out minbets and small bets here instead of checking.

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Agreed, so make the bet and find out. Youre giving yourself a much better chance to win by making the cont. bet on the flop than by checking and trying to manuever later on. The flop is where youd have hit your K and youd have bet it. Ignore flush draw potential, the lack of As and Ks makes it way too distant for the action given.

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So, Villain can't have Kx. Does Villain have 77+? I don't think so either, they're going to try to bet those.

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If we made the continuation bet he wins with Kx, plain and simple, and might fold the best hand if he lays down a PP, thus the power of this play.

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I also think Villain has a very wide calling range here, because I think he's a donk. I think Villain could have called QJs or A2 here preflop, even though it's horrible, especially if Durron's been aggressive lately.

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No evidence to support Durron has been overly aggressive, and even donks im not giving credit for QJ. I dont understand why you dont like the continuation bet with the range of hands youve given him... seems like if we agree hes playing bad hands (esp. if hes playing as bad as you give him credit for) then the cont. bet is perfect- take it down with no free cards.

[lastchance]

Ok, here we go.

A contuination bet could be a good idea, but Villain will call Kings here, and they'll hit. Checking here allows you to find out whether or not Villain has a King for free. You check, Villain checks. You know he doesn't have a King.

He's a donk, so he isn't thinking about whether or not you have a King, though he might find it fishy that you check flop and wants to call you.

77+... I don't think you get donks to fold those types of hands on the flop. Meh, just me, though it would be reason to cont-bet here.

Ok, so when the king hits the turn, what could he have? Maybe a 6 (though even donks aren't calling stuff like J6 here) or a 4? Doubtful. Set? Nope. King? Of course not.

By checking, we have figured out that Villain has nothing, and now our contuination bet here wins instead of 60% of the time, around 90% of the time. Of course, he may call with AJ or AQ here, whereas you may have more success on the flop, but you've got the best hand on the turn with Ace High, and so you're going to bet it to stop people from hitting 6 outs on the river.

It's not about what you have, or what you're representing. It's about what Villain doesn't have, and he doesn't have a hand, and most Villains aren't going to think any more than that.

[durron597]

Remember guys, we're playing against real people. Sure, they are often donks, but sometimes donks think highly of themselves even though they play donkily. Obviously I wouldn't try something like this if I thought there was zero chance he lays down JJ in this spot.

I have been raising lots of pots and cont betting the few times I get called. This time I didn't, mostly because I thought I was behind to his entire range and he had over 1/3 of his stack in the middle. So I checked intending to fold to his bet and he checked behind. This to me indicates that he doesn't like the board because if he did, his stack size is such that he would just bet.

When the second King comes, I know that it doesn't help him. But the only way that it has any chance of turning into a fold on his end by a mid PP is if he thinks I was slowplaying a monster. So why would betting 700 represent AK? It certainly wouldn't. And I don't think he's *perceptive enough* to think a check on the flop and a large turn bet is QQ/JJ. In fact I would think were I in his shoes that it means AQ-AT. So I minbet, trying to continue the slowplay in a sense but it's a bet that gets more chips in the middle. The thing is that I have wiggle room in my stack but Villian doesn't have any in his.

On the river, he has ~980 behind and the pot is 1900. I bet 600, 2/3 of his stack; a small bet that screams like it wants a call, and big enough to seriously dent his stack.

So, what were the results? He folded. I don't know what he had. I don't know if I got him to fold a better Ace or a PP but he folded so, yeah.

Oh yeah. The other thing about waiting to the river is that people who have a hand like AQ here might call their stack given the size of the pot and "I might hit an ace". On the river people are more reluctant to call with A high.

Yea, I have to agree with Daliman, a person holding a king should check the flop, betting to charge a flush draw is usually a bad play, and giving a free card in this example would be a good play with a king. It is a bad play to bet big on that flop with a king because it is giving better odds to the flush draws if they call. The short stack would have all the more reason to push with a flush draw also, so that play is very dangerous if not just bad. The turn is where the flush draws should be eliminated, and a bet of 700 would make sense, which would make the odds much worse for a flush draw to call. In this particular game, I understand that your opponent is most likely not thinking on these same lines, so your play is most likely +ev, but this play against good players is not likely to be beneficial. But thinking that there is a flush draw out there so it must be charged or chased away is DEFINITELY -ev, at least in my opinion.

[durron597]

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But thinking that there is a flush draw out there so it must be charged or chased away is DEFINITELY -ev, at least in my opinion.

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I'm HU. Villians don't ALWAYS have the flush draw, in fact they frequently don't.

I did not say that, I was just responding to you saying "Would a king bet 700 on the turn?" I think a king definitely would make that play, and that it would be a good play. Many other posters also discussed chasing away the flush draws, which I disagreed with. I think you did a good job of representing a king against this player, but I am saying against different opponents I am not sure this play would be a wise one.