+EV opportunities in sportsbetting?

Sandwich · #1 10-24-2005, 09:25 PM

Well, thanks guys for the answers you gave me.... If I'm understanding correctly, it's pretty much 'learn by doing'... do the research, watch the games, make the wagers.

Disappointing, really. I was (naively?) hoping that there were specific strategies or situations that were +EV (in the mathematical sense).... i.e., ways to beat the vig on a consistent basis.

Knowing very little about how parimutuel and sportsbooks operate, off the top of my head, I'm thinking of things like situations where a 'fan favorite' or a 'big bettor' will push a line one direction... identifying those situations and betting in the other direction.... wondering if there are systems or strategies for such techniques....
or other techniques and strategies... bets to avoid, bascially, bets to maximize +EV.

Or is it really all just WATCH SPORTS and RESEARCH?
(and if so... watch WHAT and research WHAT?)

((again, sorry if my question or my "tone" offends...))

Sandwich · #2 10-24-2005, 09:30 PM

Or even another idea... line shopping.... Is there a way to make that a +EV strategy?

#3 10-24-2005, 09:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Or even another idea... line shopping.... Is there a way to make that a +EV strategy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Line shopping is where +ev comes from.

Sandwich · #4 10-24-2005, 09:38 PM

Ok.... How so?

Thanks!

Sandwich · #5 10-24-2005, 09:41 PM

Are the things described in this post strategies or techniques for +EV?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=1#Post3759671

Maybe I'm bumping up against this truism from dankhank, (i.e., the posts on here are truly over my newbie head!):

"in general i think this forum's advice is a level or two up from beginner's advice. the posters don't tailor their message for newbies to understand."

In any event, maybe pointing my to some of those threads with "system-level disagreements" will help me understand this stuff better.... can anyone provide a link or two?

Thanks!

#6 10-24-2005, 11:14 PM

A +EV situation in sports betting is pretty much exactly the same as in poker. It's just a situation where the payout exceeds the probability that an event occurs. So given a spread, you have to determine how likely it is to occur, and then if the payout is greater, you have a +EV bet. A good example would be the last game of the NLCS with Oswalt and the Astros getting +150 or so. A +150 price is basically saying, this team will only win 40% of the time, which is obviously way off for a Cy Young candidate like Oswalt. The true odds are probably a coin flip at worst, therefore making the line a great +EV situation. Of course, most lines are not as glaringly off and most edges are small at best. Being able to identify the edge is the real trick and that's where research, experience, etc. come into play.

#7 10-24-2005, 11:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Disappointing, really. I was (naively?) hoping that there were specific strategies or situations that were +EV (in the mathematical sense).... i.e., ways to beat the vig on a consistent basis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people have their "systems", but they aren't always inclined to share, since it makes their +EV bets less +EV.

20Five · #8 10-25-2005, 12:15 AM

unlike poker, when all the cards are out on the table.. and there are obvious %'s involved in a variety of plays, it often can be difficult to find these +EV situations. As you spend more time and effort around sports betting, you'll get a better feel for where these chances are, whereas in poker its easy to learn about pot/implied odds in some situations and make the mechanical +EV calls raises or folds.