Hmm, OOP with nasty turn card

[Shillx]

Bet. Stop fearing flush draws so much. Clearly the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a good river card far more then a bad river card.

Brad

[Eeegah]

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betting gets value from multiple weaker king hands, weaker pairs, straight draws, and flush draws that called the two bets on the flop. we could check and see, i guess. if it's bet and raised we fold. if CO bets again i'd raise.

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I hate to bring the weaksauce on this one, but we're probably behind here at least 50% of the time (I'd go as high as 75) and we're getting drawn out on almost every other time. A diamond or spade will kill us about 20% of the time they hit, a Q or T gives a likely 2 pair, and there are a few straight draws that could kill us as well. I c/f.

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Yes, this feels reeealy weak sauce. Why is a spade going to hurt us that much? Do you think BB or MP1 called two cold with just two spades? The BDSD makes even less sense. I don't see why 2 pair is "likely" if a T falls either (and to a lesser extent the Q--if CO had KQ I'd expect a raise preflop, but BB might have one).

BB doesn't necessarily have an ace because he saw the flop for free--for all we know he could have middle pair and wanted to hit one of his five outs. CO--well he bets when checked to so who knows what he might have, but a weaker King or a flush draw are the most reasonable. The biggest problem IMO is MP1: maybe he has a flush draw (we're ahead of him), maybe he just made aces up (we have 2 outs), or he just likes to call. Which is more likely? Beats the hell out of me.

I'm betting out and reevaluate if raised, giving us around 3.5 outs or so.

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check/fold, unless it's the CO who bets again, then raise.


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This was my first thought. But I suck bad.

[bjarne]

No way I'm giving a free card here just because an A came on the board. I'd hate to see someone make a diamond or spade flush on the river knowing they didn't pay for it.

[imported_The Vibesman]

I like a bet-fold on the turn. It is possible the Ace didn't help anyone, and is just as scary to them as it is to you.

[bozlax]

Ok, right off the bat, raise preflop. Sooted paint vs. a bunch of donk opponents? Put them on the spot. That changes a lot of things in this hand.

At first blush I was thinking c/f. I still don't think it's necessarily a bad play, against a bunch of ABC donkish players (a bet likely means an ace, and they're also not above calling two with a 3-card flush draw and TP...say K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

Everybody saying check, raise a bet from CO, fold a bet from anybody else is nuts. Just because CO bets when folded to, usually, doesn't mean he's going to do that when an ACE falls. If you're going to c/f, then do it and don't look back...it's the same reason, regardless of bettor.

The problem with bet/fold is that if you bet and are called all the way around, what do you do when raised if a brick falls on the river, since you're going to HAVE to bet out again?

So, yeah, I PFR and lead the flop. When the scare turn falls, I bet out again. If raised, I call and check/fold the river UI.

The way you played it, bet out the turn, fold to a raise. Check/call the river UI, unless it's a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], in which case check/fold.