5/10 NL/PP...Mucking KK Preflop with Deep Stacks

whitelime · #1 03-19-2005, 10:06 AM

I am most afraid of the CO's hand. I don't see him calling that reraise with less than KK. He is fairly tight, thought not a rock.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

BB ($3022.75)
UTG ($2500.38)
UTG+1 ($1017)
UTG+2 ($990)
MP1 ($1070.5)
MP2 ($410)
MP3 ($955)
CO ($2294.5)
Hero ($5221.25)
SB ($657)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls $10, 5 folds, CO raises to $95, Hero calls $95, 2 folds, UTG raises to $475, CO calls $380, Hero folds.

Flop: ($1060) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $900, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $1960

youngin20 · #2 03-19-2005, 10:55 AM

Shrug, I guess you could play it this way. You could also push, but you arent getting called by a worse hand....but deep stack poker is weird...btw, thats a mighty big stack you got there for 5/10 (500 bb????) I thought he put in a rather big raise preflop, and then smooth calling the reraise kinda stinks like AA or KK, but I lean towards AA, because KK would be too afraid to let an ace flop in a three way pot. I think a lot of people will say its a bad laydown, but I actually like it. However when he bets the pot on the flop, he might just have AA without the A of clubs, but if I had the ace of clubs I would be prone to giving a free card. So thats what I think, and my analysis is probably entirely wrong.

Morphling29 · #3 03-19-2005, 11:02 AM

I think its a clear fold if co is a solid tight player. I love when players play AA so obvious, they might as well play with there hand face up.

flawless_victory · #4 03-19-2005, 02:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a clear fold if co is a solid tight player. I love when players play AA so obvious, they might as well play with there hand face up.

[/ QUOTE ]WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

FoxwoodsFiend · #5 03-19-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if I had the ace of clubs I would be prone to giving a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is atrocious thinking. You're willing to give up a free card to somebody who could easily turn a set or a flush against you (or god forbid some two pair with KJ although such crap has hopefully been eliminated by the preflop action)because if a club comes you'll have a draw to the nut? It's normally not a good idea to give free cards in huge pots because you have a backdoor flush draw. Bet and take the pot down.

FoxwoodsFiend · #6 03-19-2005, 04:35 PM

I personally hate the smooth-call with KK. A lot of people seem to be making this move, and I think that it's rarely justified and just a good way to lose big hands. For one thing, it might have cost you a little more money but if you put in a reraise and UTG limp re-reraises or UTG calls and CO still comes over the top at least you'll be sure you're behind. As it is the pot has $1060 in it and you only need to get $1420 more out of it to justify investing putting in $380 (again IF you're behind) if you want to get your 6.5:1. Considering that you'll only need to get a little more than a pot-sized bet out of it to justify seeing a flop and that this hand is 3-handed with a limp re-raiser out of position you can reasonably expect this hand to play pretty big. I say call.

whitelime · #7 03-19-2005, 04:55 PM

What kind of neanderthal math do you use to get 6.5:1 as the requiste odds required to play to flop a set? As far as I'm concerned, you need to be able to win 10 times the amount you have to call. 8.5 of that is your odds to flop a set, and the other 1.5 factors in set over set, and the fact that if he has an overpair, you will lose 10% of the time.

FoxwoodsFiend · #8 03-19-2005, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of neanderthal math do you use to get 6.5:1 as the requiste odds required to play to flop a set? As far as I'm concerned, you need to be able to win 10 times the amount you have to call. 8.5 of that is your odds to flop a set, and the other 1.5 factors in set over set, and the fact that if he has an overpair, you will lose 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're going to unnecessarily call me a "neanderthal" you should at least be right. It's not 8.5:1 to flop a set. Also, if you're worrying about that 10% of the time, look at it this way-that 10% of the time he sucks out on your set assumes you see two cards. If you flop a set of KK and are trying to get money out of the guy, and he ends up seeing a river you'll have extracted more than the $1420 I say you need to and the price you'll have charged him to suck out will make up for his redraw. So getting the 6.5:1 is a bare minimum but I think you can get more than that so it's easier to justify the call.

whitelime · #9 03-19-2005, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you're worrying about that 10% of the time, look at it this way-that 10% of the time he sucks out on your set assumes you see two cards. If you flop a set of KK and are trying to get money out of the guy, and he ends up seeing a river you'll have extracted more than the $1420 I say you need to and the price you'll have charged him to suck out will make up for his redraw. So getting the 6.5:1 is a bare minimum but I think you can get more than that so it's easier to justify the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is absolutely zero substance in that ramble so I won't bother to address it unless you clarify.

I never said it's 8.5:1 to flop a set. I know the difference between 1/8.5 and 7.5:1. I am saying that to calculate implied odds when flopping a set, purely assuming that you are a 100% favorite when you flop one, you need to win 8.5 times the bet amount. Since you don't understand math, that means you lose $10 (assuming $10 bet preflop) 8.5 times, and need to win $85 the time you hit a set to make up for that. Notice that my 8.5 times the bet argument assumes it is 7.5:1 or 1/8.5 to flop a set.

The problem, however, is that you aren't a 100% favorite every time you flop a set. As a result, you need to win even more than 8.5 times the bet amount. 10 times is my estimate, and I show you how I derive it.

You still haven't explained the math behind your 6.5 argument.