Quiz: test your EV instinct

[coltrane]

(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[Morphling29]

first instinct is to fold, doing the math I see why you posted these numbers, If you are folding if you miss the turn then its six outs with 45 unseen means you need 7.5 to 1 and I think its like 150 to win 1075 with implied odds when it needs to be 1050 for even ev. So I believe you have very small positve ev.....lol ....then again I might be wrong.

[Morphling29]

also the board pairing on river or him having the A hearts flaws my math

[Jonny]

I would fold. Only because he has redraws on the river if I hit. If I am 100% sure of 2 pair, there are less redraws, so I call.

[gomberg]

On instinct I call here, but it's probably very close and because of redraws I bet it's a fold.

you'll win if you hit (8/45) then hit (34/44) - but you also have to account for if he hits two running cards for a flush draw (say 2% that'll happen).

This is 13.73% - running flush draw... or about 6.28 : 1 or a little worse cause of the running flush draw.

You're getting implied odds of $150:925 - or 6.16 : 1...

So it's a fold.

Now if I think he'll check fold to a flush card coming on the turn, then it's a call [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[savman]

my first insinct is to fold....top set is wicked (omaha instict coming out)..and i never get there...lol....also, i instintively lean towards folding b/c no read can be this accurate, and since it is close anyway (i guess) i think it is realistically -EV to make this call as a pf raiser would play top pair like this and if you hit you may not get his stack.

math one...uhhhh..83 percent of the time we lose 150....so of the remaingn 17 percent we win 1075 76 percent of the time so 817....not looking good on its face...if we play this hand 100 times we lose 12450 and win 13889....instinct shminstinct, it appears, assuming my math is correct (which is a brave assumption at 3 am) that we make money with this play. i will be waiting for someone to do the math correctly to see if we really do.

[soah]

My first instinct was to fold but that it's really close. Part of that may be that my "instincts" are also aware that I can never be 100% certain about how my opponent will act so I tend to round down my implied odds a bit...

For the math... (I'm assuming you want us to do the math by hand/in our head?) I have about a 20% chance of hitting, and in those instances I will get my money in on the turn with roughly 80% pot equity.

If I fold on the flop I have 725 left.

If I call the flop and hit we will play a 1650 pot in which I have 80% equity, for a final pot equity of 1320ish.

If I call the flop and miss, then I fold and have 575 left.

I miss four times as much as I hit, so my final equity of calling on the flop is (.2 x 1320) + (.8 x 575) = 724

So the results are within a dollar of each other... so like I said, it's really close. =P

Actually, my equity calculations for calling the flop are probably slightly too high because the chances of hitting on the turn are a little less than 20%, and his redraw for the river is a bit better than 20% (to be complete it would also need to account for the possibility of him making a runner-runner flush against our straight, in addition to his boat outs, which is worth a couple percent more as well). So in the end, it's a close fold.

Disclaimer: I did not doublecheck my math.

[warlockjd]

fold bcz paired board and flush, others can mathematize

[RydenStoompala]

[ QUOTE ]
you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you call.

[ginko]

I fold. And I really don't think it's that -EV. You have nothing invested in the pot...


Now if the stacks were deeper, I always call.