Weak fold or good fold?

[Billy Baroo]

UB 5/10 6 max. limit hold 'em (5 handed)

This was my third hand at the table, and my two opponents in the hand had folded pre-flop on the two previous hands.

I open raise on button with AcKc. SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: Js 5c Qs

Checked to me, I bet, Sb raises, BB 3-bets, I fold.

Comments?

[kiddo]

U have 10 outs to hit straight or toppair. You have position on them, use it. I would seriously think about capping, making them think you have overpair and then check turn behind if you dont hit (if they flopped a set or 2pair theyt will probably go for checkraise on turn so I would not bet turn as a seminbluff if they check turn). You will hit turn or river about 38% (1-(37/47*36/46=0.62) so capping against 2 is ok as long as they will check turn and your outs are clean.

[J.R.]

You're being way too generous in calculating hero's outs (and in estimating the liklihood he gets a free turn card). IMO this is a fold getting only 12-2 (and not closing the cation) with the possibility of being up against 2 pair or a set and the questionable nature of the A, K and Q of spades as outs.

[spydog]

I don't think this is a fold. I think I would call this and check-fold the turn if I don't improve. You have at least 2 outs to the nuts, plus backdoor nutflush possibilities. I think the implied odds are here make this an easy call and possible cap for the reasons that Kiddo mentioned.

[J.R.]

Sorry meant T of spades, not Q.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
with the possibility of being up against 2 pair or a set and the questionable nature of the A, K and Q of spades as outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You did a stealraise from button and they both defended, and both wanted to checkraise. They are not putting you anything good so SB could very well checkraise with a lot of hands, including any pair. When BB 3bets it looks like he isnt having a really strong hand because he wants you out. IF you cap, and SB coldcalls 2 and BB calls and one of them still thinks he have a better hand then yours, dont you think they will go for checkraise? I would because I would be 99% sure that a flopccaper is not checking turn.

Of course we dont know what they have but with first three folding its like we are playin 3way and 3way people are aggressive with not very much.

Will be interesting to see what other says.

[Benjamin]

I definitely wouldn't fold there. I like kiddo's reasoning for the cap. Counting a full 10 outs is too generous, but counting 6 is probably reasonable. With 2 players along for the ride and the distinct possiblity of a free river card if you don't like the turn, I think capping is a good play.

B.

[J.R.]

I hear ya, I am not devaluing the action as a result of the steal raise from the button as much as you (althought it is a 5 handed game) and that's the primary difference. I don't know how aggro 5-10 games at UB are, but I wouldn't be stoked about my hand here in a party game. But I know you pound much more relentlessly than I feel comfortable doing right now. Maybe I get more aggro with my game, I have ramped things down a bit when played back at lately, but I think party's 5-10 is more loose passive than it has been, and that's what I am currently playing.

I agree it looks like the sb wants to drive the BB out, but the BB's check-raise seems to be one intended to keep people in the pot, otherwise wouldn't he bet into the pfr? It seems like he is driving you out by 3-betting, but another way to view it is he is just following thru with his plan to check-raise for value. This is why I think the BB has a made hand and bets the turn (even if you cap) with the flush and gutshot draws on board.

I think I agree with capping if you are going to continue, but the reverse implied odds you have (you don't know if a spade helps some else more than you, you A and K outs are no good v. 2 pair or a set, or if an A or K fills a straight draw), the pot isn't huge, and given you are going to put 4 bets in on the flop if you continue, you don't have great implied odds (although you are likely to get action when you improve to the best hand).

He is immediately getting 12-2, so I think he needs to have at least 7 good outs here (even if you get a free card on the turn a good bit of the time) because 1) his implied odds are cut by putting in 3 more flop bets and 2) he will get there drawing dead or on a card that improves soemone else by more some amount of time (this amount is up for debate) and spew big bets on the turn and river. This offsets the bets he collects when he improves to the best hand on the turn or river. Anyway, this is an interesting hand, I look for other's comments as well.

[vector]

Interesting hand.

I find the arguments for capping and folding to both be very persuasive.

A couple of (probably useless) observations:

1. Wouldn't a flush draw bet out rather than check raise in a three handed pot? Many players would check call, but how many check raise as opposed to bet out?

While this might add weight to the spade outs all being clean, it also might make a stronger case for 2 pair or better in an opponents hand which hurts the AK outs.

2. I like capping for image reasons. You just sat down, you raise preflop, cap flop, and if nothing helps you check turn and fold river. Makes you look kinda nuts, although the play wasn't really a bad one.

I think at the time I would have folded, but with time to consider it I'm increasingly liking the cap.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I like capping for image reasons. You just sat down, you raise preflop, cap flop, and if nothing helps you check turn and fold river. Makes you look kinda nuts, although the play wasn't really a bad one.


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this 2. I am not sure it is a good thing having a image as "crazy" because you want people to fold when u bet those unhit AQ on turn but against good/decent players its very good that they think u are bad, gives u $.

If they think u are "crazy" u have to bluff less and valuebet more.