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  #1  
Old 12-25-2005, 08:25 AM
JMa JMa is offline
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Posts: 32
Default Folding a presumed coinflip.

This hand is from a $200k guaranteed on party earlier this week. There are two tables left at this point if I remember correctly.

Avg stack is about T220k, so if I fold I have about avg. I have no read on villain, I think that his worst hand here is AKo and TT. Ok to fold here? Cflipping (at best?) for 1.25x avg seems a little too extreme.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15000 (9 handed) converter

Button (t195176)
SB (t141002)
BB (t117380)
UTG (t86094)
Hero (t271126)
MP1 (t316027)
MP2 (t19316)
MP3 (t221068)
CO (t738906)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t45000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t124800</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero folds.
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  #2  
Old 12-25-2005, 08:44 AM
henrikrh henrikrh is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

I would fold what might be a coinflip with a pocket pair much quicker than AK, but this guy has half average stack, don't think it could be AQs or even AJs?
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  #3  
Old 12-25-2005, 08:57 AM
JMa JMa is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

this guy covers me
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  #4  
Old 12-25-2005, 09:26 AM
henrikrh henrikrh is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

Whoops, misread, too many damn digits. If he covers you then the case for folding is very strong, with 2 tables left the prizes jump quickly, an average stack could check/fold into a decent amount of cash. Then again maybe he's thinking this and knows you'll fold a strong hand as long as it's not QQ-AA. He could be mkaing this move with a weaker hand, but why risk it?
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  #5  
Old 12-25-2005, 09:36 AM
MeanGreenTT MeanGreenTT is offline
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Location: Tampa
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

[ QUOTE ]
.....with 2 tables left the prizes jump quickly, an average stack could check/fold into a decent amount of cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe just me, but.......uggggghhhhhh!
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  #6  
Old 12-25-2005, 10:43 AM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

Easy push. You are getting almost 3-2 on your money to go allin versus fold. AKs is close to even versus a pp, 3-1 or so versus AQ or whatever, and about a 2-1 dog to KK and 10-1 to AA. On balance, I think you are well ahead of the pot odds.

Plus you want to gamble to try to make the top spots. You shouldn't think about maintaining an average stack at this point. You should think about winning. Also, folding AKs to a single reraise is very weak/tight.
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  #7  
Old 12-25-2005, 12:18 PM
stevepa stevepa is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

TT+ and AK is about the tightest possible range for anyone, and you're still getting correct odds against it. Against a slightly looser range of 88+, AQ+, your fold is pretty bad (it's basically 50/50 and you're getting 3:2). I push. Also, every once in a while (5% of the time? 10?) the guy was "finding out if he was beat" and folds to the push. Before I get flamed, folding after that reraise is obviously terrible. I'm just pointing out that there are a reasonable number of people who, especially late in tournaments, blatantly ignore pot odds and may fold a hand as good as TT or AQ here.

Steve
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  #8  
Old 12-25-2005, 12:25 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

pretty sure it's an easy push. for one you still have some FE, i wouldn't be surprised to see this win the pot 10% of the time or more. Also, i think his range probably includes AQs, and some more pocket pairs.
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  #9  
Old 12-25-2005, 01:19 PM
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Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure it's an easy push. for one you still have some FE, i wouldn't be surprised to see this win the pot 10% of the time or more. Also, i think his range probably includes AQs, and some more pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree. With so many players remaining, you probably aren't going to make the FT without a double. Even if you are behind, the extra equity of making it into the higher money is worth the risk.

{BTW, it is just me or is the term "coin flip" the most misused and overused phrase in poker these days. Looking at these kinds of hands as coin flips does nothing but encourage bad decisions. 54-46 is not a coin flip. If you're ahead, then you're getting your chips in with the best of it. If you're behind, then you're either calling because the equity is there or folding because it isn't. Note to self: New Year's resolution, stop describing close situations as coin flips.}
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  #10  
Old 12-25-2005, 01:27 PM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
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Posts: 160
Default Re: Folding a presumed coinflip.

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure it's an easy push. for one you still have some FE, i wouldn't be surprised to see this win the pot 10% of the time or more. Also, i think his range probably includes AQs, and some more pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP1 just put in more than 1/3 of his stack. The only way he folds this is if he's weaker than my six year-old niece.

That said, I'm shoving this. A) You have a big hand; B) You're getting big odds; C) At this point in a tournament people do become as weak as my six year-old niece.
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