how's this value bet?

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
Might not mike play a big pocket pair this way?:

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I understand the concept but I don't think it applies very well here. I mean, does the big bad preflop 3 bettor with KK really fear that either an EP raiser or a BB who called 3 cold has a SEVEN? Not likely. If the turn was a flush card then it's more plausible, but my guess is that mike and most of the rest of us bet the turn withan overpair in that situation as well. (Hell, you basically have to in order to avoid giving a free card).

[ike]

You can't value bet when your hand is face up.

[fnord_too]

JQ also got there for the straight, which a blind might call two more with.

Having said that, I don't see how a worse hands calls here. Do these people think you would three bet pre flop with something worse than AK or AQ? Maybe you get another AK to laydown, but are AJ/KQ really going to call here? Maybe this has merit as a bluff (though I don't see many better hands laying down), but unless these people are really bad I don't see how you can call this a value bet.

[DpR]

Given that there zero chance you are folding out a better hand, you are left with what the % chance is you are good when called.

I really can't see how this is >50%

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
20-40 good live game. lady who plays ok raises in mp, i 3 bet on button w/ AK, bb who is fishy calls, she calls.

the flop is 986 rainbow, checked to me, i bet, and they call.

turn is a T. checked to me and i check.

river is another 8. at this point i put bb on nothing and lady on AQ or AJ. they check to me again and this time i bet.

good bet or pure spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much prefer betting the turn, and taking the free showdown. Im not so sure that the river bet isnt more of a bluff than a value bet, because I really cant see that if you get called 55% of the time you win here. Though I would really like the follow through turn bet.

[elysium]

hi mike

that's a must bet.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
hi mike

that's a must bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Unless it is to fold an AK held by MP, I don't get it.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

You're only getting called by hands that beat you.

Nobody will fold a hand that beats you, as you have telegraphed AK.

This is a perfect place to check down. You win nothing by betting and stand to lose a BB.

~ Tilts

[teddyFBI]

I'm not often this black and white about poker hands, but anyone who says the river bet is good here is flat out wrong. This bet will not get called enough by lesser hands.

[oreogod]

BB is really the only hand u have to worry about. I would assume the lady would definitly bet the river with any sort of hand. I think if u can fold BB ur good here.

cant say they would give u credit for much, but they might not have much. if BB has a low pair, he probably calls though.