Short NL 200 holdem decision, misplayed KK OOP?

[BlueBear]

Villain is VPIP%=60, PFR=16% and very aggressive postflop. Other opponents, tight aggressors. In hindsight, I probably should have raised KK a bit harder from the small blind (which I'm sure some players will do), but my read of the time is that the opponents regard me as playing tight from the blinds and that a larger raise will knock the initial raiser weak limpers out. I desired to make the pot heads-up with first raise and fortunately it happened.

The river is truly a dreadful vomit-inducing card, opponent has be completely covered and I have $170 left. Should I go to a check-folding mode as I could be behind, bet out for value, bet out to discourage a bluff or check-call to induce a bluff? I've no idea.

Seat 1: BB ( $196.15 )
Seat 2: Villain ( $371.47 )
Seat 3: MP ( $228.40 )
Seat 4: MP2 ( $191.45 )
Seat 5: Button ( $304.40 )
Seat 6: BlueBear ( $255.70 )
BlueBear posts small blind [$1].
BB posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to BlueBear [ Kc Kd ]

Villain raises [$4].
MP folds.
MP2 folds.
Button calls [$4].
BlueBear raises [$11].
BB folds.
Villain calls [$8].
LinkBeltBoss folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 6d, 3s ]
BlueBear bets [$25].
Villain calls [$25].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
BlueBear bets [$55].
Villain calls [$55].

** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
BlueBear ???

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is VPIP%=60, PFR=16% and very aggressive postflop. Other opponents, tight aggressors. In hindsight, I probably should have raised KK a bit harder from the small blind (which I'm sure some players will do), but my read of the time is that the opponents regard me as playing tight from the blinds and that a larger raise will knock the initial raiser weak limpers out. I desired to make the pot heads-up with first raise and fortunately it happened.

The river is truly a dreadful vomit-inducing card, opponent has be completely covered and I have $170 left. Should I go to a check-folding mode as I could be behind, bet out for value, bet out to discourage a bluff or check-call to induce a bluff? I've no idea.

Seat 1: BB ( $196.15 )
Seat 2: Villain ( $371.47 )
Seat 3: MP ( $228.40 )
Seat 4: MP2 ( $191.45 )
Seat 5: Button ( $304.40 )
Seat 6: BlueBear ( $255.70 )
BlueBear posts small blind [$1].
BB posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to BlueBear [ Kc Kd ]

Villain raises [$4].
MP folds.
MP2 folds.
Button calls [$4].
BlueBear raises [$11].
BB folds.
Villain calls [$8].
LinkBeltBoss folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 6d, 3s ]
BlueBear bets [$25].
Villain calls [$25].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
BlueBear bets [$55].
Villain calls [$55].

** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
BlueBear ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet $80 here and applaud a villan who can bluff raise me out of it.

[HarryW]

That river card is really bad. Maybe make a very small bet, like $40. Does this villain tend to call two 2/3 pot bets with only one pair? Even if he does we can't beat even AsJx. We really got to be hoping he holds JT, QJ, TT-77 or an unlikely KJ. If he holds these hands, do you think he is going to be bluff raising you on a river card that can scare him as much as you? I sure don't think so. A raise here says you are beat.

OOP this is a really tough situation. Next time bomb it preflop to 20-28 to try to take it down. If he continues then it is easier postflop because you should be able to get it in by the turn if he wants to continue. I hope AJ didn't stack you here.

[fuzzbox]

Betting 80 with the intention of folding is not good here. would be getting very good odds to call the raise. You would have to call 90 to win pot = 187 + your bet = 80 + his push = 170 ... for a total of 437. Nearly 5:1. You dont have to have the best hand very often to call.

Thus, blocking the river pretty much commits you to call a push.

check/call is much better, cos at least he can bluff.

[fuzzbox]

Why do you bet 40 ?
Just because you feel like betting ? What if he pushes when you bet 40 ?

Villain will call 40 with an Ace, push with two pair+ and can also push on a bluff.

So when you bet 40, and he pushes, you are no wiser, but you have put 40 in, and there arent many(any?) worse hands that will pay you off.

[fuzzbox]

Raise much harder preflop, you dont want lots of action given that you are oop. Make it 20 and take it from there.

Its an UTG minraise, so if he calls when you make it 20 then you can be fairly certain that its a pair of some sort (or high cards), and not be as worried about Axs.

I check/fold the river Im afraid.

[HarryW]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you bet 40 ?
Just because you feel like betting ? What if he pushes when you bet 40 ?

Villain will call 40 with an Ace, push with two pair+ and can also push on a bluff.

So when you bet 40, and he pushes, you are no wiser, but you have put 40 in, and there arent many(any?) worse hands that will pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain just called the turn bet. If he had a flush or 2pair+, he would likely raise. Thus we are likely in the lead against a calling opponent. I listed many hands that would call like this that we still beat: QJ, TJ, TT-77, and KJ. These hands will pay off the smallish bet. The thing is we don't want to give a free showdown to these hands, but we also don't want to price ourselves in with a large blocking bet as you pointed out in your other post. Pretty rare to find an opponent in ssnl that is calling twice then bluff raising the river.

As to the idea that he will bluff bet on the river: what the hell hand is he going to bluff on an ace river? He will likely shut down with all the hands we beat. Do we really think he has the naked K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is going to get wild on the river and bluff us off the best hand?

How big of a bet do we want to check/call? 2/3 pot, full pot, a push? He is going to bet us quite a bit if that card beat us, but he will check if we beat him.

It seems to me that there are next to zero hands that would bluff here so trying to catch a bluff is just spraying chips.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain just called the turn bet. If he had a flush or 2pair+, he would likely raise. Thus we are likely in the lead against a calling opponent. I listed many hands that would call like this that we still beat: QJ, TJ, TT-77, and KJ. These hands will pay off the smallish bet. The thing is we don't want to give a free showdown to these hands, but we also don't want to price ourselves in with a large blocking bet as you pointed out in your other post. Pretty rare to find an opponent in ssnl that is calling twice then bluff raising the river.

As to the idea that he will bluff bet on the river: what the hell hand is he going to bluff on an ace river? He will likely shut down with all the hands we beat. Do we really think he has the naked K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is going to get wild on the river and bluff us off the best hand?

How big of a bet do we want to check/call? 2/3 pot, full pot, a push? He is going to bet us quite a bit if that card beat us, but he will check if we beat him.

It seems to me that there are next to zero hands that would bluff here so trying to catch a bluff is just spraying chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly disagree with this. There are many hands that will bluff at this point. BlueBear has represented most likely some type of high pocket pair or AK. If villain is ballsy enough, he may take a gamble and guess that bluebear does not have AA or AK. If this is the case, he may just push all-in with the ace out, knowing that this was the one card that bluebear did not want to see, but I believe most people at this point would check behind without that ace, unless they actually have it. I agree with those who say a check/call would be the best idea at this point. Whether you want to call an all-in is up to you and your reads on this player. The best hand I would give the villain credit for would be AJ. Two-pair or set would have raised you at some point earlier, to deter you from drawing out on him, therefore, I believe you are beating many more hands that villain could hold than you are losing to.

Also, I think you should have checked that turn and hoped to just check call small bets to a showdown. That third [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a very scary card, and it is very possible that he was drawing to a flush because of his cold calling your flop bet. It's possible that he has a made flush here and because of his position behind you, is simply calling your turn bet with the intention of raising large your river bet. Check/call or check/fold this river.

[xorbie]

How is the river card bad? The only possible hand that helped is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J. I'd definitely check and call and expect to see a sexy 45 here.