and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a disaster? consider two cases:

a) push the flop and get heads up against the SB's Ax.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jc 9c Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.5354 % 53.54% 00.00% { QcTc }
Hand 2: 46.4646 % 46.46% 00.00% { As7c }

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is 120 + 620 + 620 = 1360, hero has equity 728 and he paid 620, so the +EV of pushing (vs. folding) is +108.

b) call flop and fold turn

lose 100 relative to folding flop. so you lose 208 chips when you have to fold the turn vs if you push and get HU vs SB. not exactly a disaster, since getting heads up vs SB is a pretty good result, but not some sort of amazing score. op's read is that villain almost certainly has an A and probably isn't going anywhere, so there isn't much fold equity to be had.

one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks. plus a call here lets others call or raise, both of which you're happy to see.

if you raise, you might fold out a small flush draw, which is obviously really bad (and the nut flush draw is not going anywhere, and the K-high draw probably isn't either).

i think you've got to call here.