Help me on this river.

[nolefan21]

This was very early at this table, but my read on MP was pretty solid.

3-bet the river?

Party Poker 3/6 (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $6. MP calls. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. BB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero bets. MP calls. BB folds.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets. MP calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets. MP raises. Hero....???

[SnglMaltScotch]

This could very possibly be the easiest 3bet ever. Am I missing something. Unless he has exactly AT you win. He probably has KQ or KJ.

Ugh.

I might just call this.

I definitely 3-bet this. A solid player wouldn't call 2 bets preflop with 9-10 unless he was sure he'd get a few other callers. A solid player wouldn't call down with AT, a gutshot. He probably has KQ, although more likely KJ since he'd probably raise on the flop/turn with KQ.

[nolefan21]

Follow up question....do you fold if he caps?

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
Follow up question....do you fold if he caps?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. What would a solid player CC with in MP? You are behind 9T and AT and I think the chance a solid player is CC'ing from MP with either is fairly slim. I think he had a flush draw and missed or hit two pair. He possibly has a set and was slowplaying you. Either way I'm raising and calling the cap if it comes.

[Scotch78]

If we assume his hand range is AT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (1), KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1), and KJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1), then raising is a break-even play. Note: I am assuming that he'll only cap with the nuts, since many players who are willing to cap the river with two pair will raise the flop with one, especially top pair and a good kicker.

What if his cold-calling range is wider, though? If we add in AT (15) and KQ (3), then 3-betting is clearly wrong. However, if he's willing to call this turn with AT, then he might cold-call with KJ (3) and he'd probably call the flop and turn with AK (4). Guess it all depends on whether you think he'll cold-call with AT. But either way, I definitely call a cap.

Scott

[Fat Nicky]

I really don't think 3-betting is automatic here. When you look at the logical 2 pair combos, since 3 Kings are out, there are only 3 combos of KQ, and 3 combos of KJ.

You describe MP as solid, so, if he had QJ or a small set, he most likely would have raised the turn.

The way the hand played out, A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] seems like the most logical holding, any 109s also.

Now, I'm not saying that a 3-bet is wrong and I'm not saying I wouldn't 3-bet...I just don't think it's automatic.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
This was very early at this table, but my read on MP was pretty solid

[/ QUOTE ]

That's great. What was it?

-McGee

[Fat Nicky]

I took this as him describing MP as solid.