River Play?

buhler26 · #1 12-21-2005, 12:20 AM

Unsure of my river play here. Button is fairly passive player.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (9 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB
Main Pot: 13 BB, between Button and Hero.

bigalt · #2 12-21-2005, 12:26 AM

I think you'll win this river more like 5% of the time depending on your opponent. If he wanted to bluff that heart he'd have done so on the turn. There's always the chance that he got the trip queen and got excited about it, so if you've seen him do anything goofy I'd call, otherwise fold.

buhler26 · #3 12-21-2005, 12:30 AM

Do you b/f or c/f?

W. Deranged · #4 12-21-2005, 12:33 AM

I really don't think I like bet-calling, as the Q means that we are now beating many fewer hands (all the sets and Q high two pairs have sucked out on us). There's still the possibility we're being slowplayed by a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. My suspicion is that we don't have a substantial equity edge on this river and so I don't like choosing to put any money in this pot. Putting in two bets seems like huge spewing against many opponents because they are simply never raising a worse hand here.

So I think it's down to bet-folding, check-folding, and bet-calling as the optimal plays here.

As it is, I have a hard time finding a significant number of hands villain might have that we are beating. We are still losing to any slowplayed big flush and any Q-high two pair or set. We are only beating a smaller flop flush, a bare Q, a hand like Qx9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I think overall the other possibilities are going to mean we don't have a clear value bet here.

If villain is passive enough, check-folding might be possible, but in generall it's not going to be since villain might be any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or just a Q on the end if we check.

So I think the best idea is to check and call. If villain is passive he might check behind a better hand some of the time (though not usually). He'll bluff a worse hand some of the time.

The river's not a great position to be in though.

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #5 12-21-2005, 02:12 AM

Given your description fo the button I think bet-fold is right on the river. Once he calls your turn bet you can be 99% sure he has a heart. When he raises you on the river you can be 99% sure he has the A or K. However, you can't check the river because you give up too much value; he will bet the Ah or Kh, but check a low heart behind and take the free showdown.

#6 12-21-2005, 07:24 AM

I think c/c on the river is correct because the button raised PF. That makes a small heart much less likely. Especially since hero has the J and 10.

goofball · #7 12-21-2005, 08:19 AM

Check. When villian just calls the turn he is either holdin the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or drawing to beat you. Former case you're dead, latter case either you're dead, Qs full or a set full, or he's not calling, (bottom two pair or something). Just check and call.

#8 12-21-2005, 11:27 AM

I say check and grudgingly call.

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #9 12-21-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I say check and grudgingly call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check, is Villain going to bet any hand that we beat? I don't think 88 or 99 with one heart is going to peel one off here.