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Old 09-29-2005, 07:52 PM
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Default Economic Profit/Expected Value

This may seem easy for you mathamaticans out there, but I am unsure of this. In measuring the economic profit (benifit) as opposed to Accounting profit, is the accounting of implicit cost (opprotunity cost). So the elementry model for Economic profit is

= Benifit- Explicit Cost- implicit Cost

My question is the model of economic decision making apply to poker and other gambling decisions that people make? Is expected value a gambling variation of this concept? or Is expected value the formula for figuring out implicit costs of a decision. Here is a scenario:

A man has a card draw to an inside straight draw. The pot is heads up and contains $150. The man with the draw is facing a $10 bet.

*Well expectation tells us a call is profitable in that the pot is laying him 15 to 1 on a 10.5 to propostion.

Can this data be factored into the Economic Profit model.

Profit(of folding)= Benifit-ex cost- imp cost(cost of calling)

I would think the opprotunity cost of folding would be the Pot Equity of $13 (approximation). The ex cost would be O is he folded. And there is really no measueable benifit to folding.

In measuring the economic profit of calling. What would be the benifit? The Opprotunity cost? Would The ex cost be $10 or $9.40 ( The expectation of the $ used to call) ?

This may be a stupid effort of thinking on my part, but I was wondering if this model can demonstrate how expert gambling decsions can be shown in this model.

-Mike
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