Party 3/6 - QQ against a loose-passive and an unknown

[spamuell]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em, 8-handed.

MP3 is very loose and very passive. His VPIP is like 70, he will see almost every river if he flops a pair or draw, calling the river if he has a pair or if he hits his draw and folding if he misses his draw. I haven't noticed button at all, according to the stats I have on him, he's been at the table for 20 hands and has played 5 of these, all of which he has raised. I don't know any more than this.

Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Folded to MP3 who open-limps, I raise, button 3-bets, blinds drop, MP3 calls, I cap, both call. Three of us take a flop for 13sb:

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP3 checks, I bet, both call. Three take a turn for 8BB:

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP3 checks, I bet, button raises, MP3 cold-calls, I fold.

Routine? What if MP3 doesn't cold-call? It doesn't mean that much that he has, he could have any pair or draw or a jack, so I will lose more times when he is in but there's also at least 2 more BB in the pot.

Comments?

[Sent]

MP3 cold call is weird. I think you had the button beat though. Without MP3 calling I probably would've reraised the button.

-Sent

[spamuell]

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MP3 cold call is weird.

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Why? Calling is what he does.

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I think you had the button beat though.

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Why? What do you put him on that I beat that he would play like this? AK or AQ? Seems unlikely to me, usually if players get jazzy with overs they do it on the flop. A big spade with or w/o a pair? I thought the chances of him semi-bluffing were low, because he has very little folding equity as MP3 would call down a lot. Having said this, I actually think if he did have AK or AQ, this would be a good way to play it when the ultimate scare card fell on the turn because MP3 could easily have no pair and I'm folding lots of better spadeless hands here (and also the same hand if I'm spadeless). I don't think he would be able to deduce this from my play yet, though, and it's unlikely he knows me from hand-mining because this is like the second time I'm playing 3/6 ever.

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Without MP3 calling I probably would've reraised the button.

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MP3 calling shouldn't make that much difference because he could literally have like 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x:random:. What do you put the button on?

[spamuell]

I was going to say something about this going off the first page due to people having bankroll-related questions and other stuff which doesn't go in this topic, but I'm going to be shameless in my bumping and admit I want more comments! Please?

[Alobar]

man, this is a tough hand. Im glad you bumped it cuz I think its very interesting. Hopefully one of the really good players responds.

I call and fold to a river bet.

You've got 2 outs, but are only getting 12-1 odds on your call. So you have to have the best hand a percentage of the time. Which I think is quite possible you do. I cant see button not raising the flop with AA or KK or the flushdraw. If he is aggro enough to three bet a hand with a jack preflop, I think he is the type that would raise the flop when he hits it. So I think there is a good shot he has something like AK or TT but with a spade. Your cap means its not likely you have a jack, so its a good card for him to scare you with.

Unfortunately even if you do have the best hand you will still get outdrawn a high percentage of the time. But since I think its relatively easy to fold to a bet on the river if a spade drops, you don't have to figure calling a river bet into your odds. The button might also give up on his bluff(if he is) on the river after getting a cold caller, and you calling. So you might not have to call a river bet even if you have the best hand. If a safe river comes (no spade, no A or K) and the button still bets, and MP3 doesnt raise, I might call anyway for the information. I would like to know if the button is capable of a semi bluff raise, or if he is the type that will 3 bet hands PF that dont warrant it.

I sorta babbled, but basically I think with your 2 good outs and your chances of still being ahead plus the ability to easily fold to a bad river plus the times you dont have to call a bet on the river, make calling worth it.

[sfer]

I am not folding to a possibly overaggro unknown, especially with MP calling along. Unless the river gets really scary I want to get to showdown.

[spamuell]

Thanks for your response Alobar, it was thought-provoking.

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I call and fold to a river bet.

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I like your argument for calling the turn but I think if he did raise with AK and especially TT, he will likely bet the river as well, thinking MP could easily fold any crappy hand or even call with a worse one and giving me a final chance to fold my "obvious" AK. Given that, do you still think I should call the turn?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your response Alobar, it was thought-provoking.

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I call and fold to a river bet.

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I like your argument for calling the turn but I think if he did raise with AK and especially TT, he will likely bet the river as well, thinking MP could easily fold any crappy hand or even call with a worse one and giving me a final chance to fold my "obvious" AK. Given that, do you still think I should call the turn?

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The question of what to do on the river if a blank comes and he still bets is a tough one. But you've got the advantage of being last to act (relatively speakin), so you will know what MP does. It also might be worth it to call at that point, because the pot is very large, you certainly have showdown value, and for 1 bet you will gain quality information. I also don't think its automatic he will continue his bluff, you are right that if he is the type to make that play, its likely he will continue with it. But its much easier to continue with it HU instead of into 2 people.