A goal and a problem, a solution?

CrackerZack · #1 04-28-2004, 02:12 PM

Hello everyone, if you follow other forums, you probably recognize me but its rare that I'm in here. Anyway, I asked this in the IRC channel last night kind of out of the blue, but was wondering what our MTT top minds think. I have a goal. I want to play in the WSOP. Not sometime, this year, although sometime would be nice too. I have a problem. I'm not a winning MTT player. I knew I wasn't last night when I asked in IRC but I did some more investigating. My sample size is small, but I'm actually in the positive in MTTs for all the data I have. I still don't think I'm a winning play, I just was very lucky in one decent tourney with a good overlay. Anyway, by some rough guesstimates, I figure I'm about a pure breakeven online MTT player if there was no rake. Supposing I want to spend no more than $500 attempting to win a seat (buyins + rebuys - secondary prizes <= $500), what is my best chance for winning a seat? I'm ok with hearing that I have about a 5% chance, etc, and can take all criticisms. What is my best plan of attack for this?

Thanks in advance,
Zack

DOTTT · #2 04-28-2004, 02:42 PM

Can I ask how you do in sng's? If you can hold your own I think you have a good chance at winning a seat in Stars new double shoot out tournament.

willie838 · #3 04-28-2004, 02:44 PM

i'd like to get in as well, but i realize that with only a year of playing under my belt, coupled with the fact that I am generally weak tight, i'd be totally dead money. For these reasons i'm just gonna save my money from the satellite multis and the big multis to win seats and maybe give it a shot next year. I need a lot more hands of practice and i also need to up my sng win percentage. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

willie838 · #4 04-28-2004, 02:48 PM

oh and i know i was talking about myself, but as for you...

if you can do well in multis and you can afford to take a few stabs at satellites then give it a shot. Play well and get lucky and you might get there. McManus anyone?

DOTTT · #5 04-28-2004, 02:56 PM

Ok the truth is your going to have to be a pretty darn good sng player not just able to hold your own. Taking a look at the names of players who were in it last night gave me goose bumps all over.

DougBrennan · #6 04-28-2004, 03:05 PM

This is off the top of my head, but to me the best avenue of approach to me would be to play satellites that offer several seats to super satellites that offer multiple seats to the Big Show.

To get more specific, Stars has rebuy satellites for anywhere from $3 to $27 (or something like that) that offer multiple seats (one for every $650 in prize fund-obviously the bigger staellites offer more seats) in their $650 supers that offer up to 10 or more seats in the WSOP Main Event. I haven't played these because I couldn't go this year anyway (and I don't think ny game is ready), but I like the idea of not having to win a tournament to get a seat.

I think this would be the way I'd go, anyway.

Doug

CrackerZack · #7 04-28-2004, 03:38 PM

This has kind of been my approach. I've played 3 of the 27s, never rebought and added on in both. I made the final table twice and posted the hideous and whiny loss I had to be bubbled the second time. Although after reading eMarkM's stuff, I don't feel nearly as bad.

To answer DOTTT's question, i'm ok at SnGs, I've done well at 10s and 30s and not as well at 50s.

nolanfan34 · #8 04-28-2004, 06:12 PM

I like the super-sat, into a bigger sat plan. The smaller the buy-in the easier the competition, frankly. And really, you just have to get lucky with some cards at the right time once to make it. Sounds like you've been close a couple of times.

I am by no means an expert MTT player, but still managed to make it to the final 3 with one seat up for grabs in one of the $30+3 satellites on Stars. The way I played in the final three has been giving me nightmares ever since, but the $650 for 3rd at least gives me a chance to play some more satellites, which is great.

I guess the bottom line I got out of it was that it was worth the time and relatively low amount of entry money for the potential reward if you really want to go this year.

morgant · #9 04-28-2004, 06:33 PM

cz, i respect your game and think you are a good guy, but........(you knew the but was coming), you are asking how to turn $500 in $10,000+ over the next couple weeks. If you are not that great a tourney player, wouldn't it make much more sense to concentrate more of your efforts on tourney's and go for the big dance next year. Frankly, if you are getting a seat with your $500, that will be extremely lucky, and I, personally, see playing in the WSOP as the highlight of my poker journey and want to be on top of my game. If you are much better at ring games, play ring with that 500 and aim to turn it into 10k, if you get close enough cough up the difference and get a ticket to vegas [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. as for the satellite situations, i think it will take the luck it always takes to win multi(by luck i mean, more than ones fair share of 50/50 hands fall in their favor) not once, but twice. I personally prefer to play directly in the super, and it seems to make more sense to me, although i have only played in one! it is also about opportunity costs, i am not familiar with stars tourney scene, but i imagine there are tons of entrants in the baby buy-in sats., so to gain entry to a super in those prolly takes a lot of time, time in which you could make enough money in ring games to buy into the super several times over. satellites are tricky and can really drain ones hard earned poker money. i am rambling, gl and let me know how it goes.....

morg.