On a 30,000 hand downswing.....

[krazyace5]

I know I have to attribute some of this to sloppy play from stress/tilt, or what have you.

But I honestly think and attribute a majority of it to the fact that I have just been having the worst luck lately.

Is this possible or am I fooling myself?

[Hoopster81]

Definately possible, I have had a bad month and have played more than 60,000 hands.

[jsnipes28]

Possibly but unlikely. I can't realistically see having a downswing or losing for more than 10K hands. I might be being naive i suppose. If you average 60-80K hands a month then it is probably more likely it seems, IMnaiveO

[scdavis0]

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I can't realistically see having a downswing or losing for more than 10K hands. I might never run bad I suppose.

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FYP

[jsnipes28]

[ QUOTE ]
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I can't realistically see having a downswing or losing for more than 10K hands. I might never run bad I suppose.

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FYP

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I run bad once monthly for 5 buy-ins. It's my standard line. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[scrapperdog]

I ran bad for what I guess about 15-20 K hands. 30 is running really really bad and it wont continue as long as you cut out the sloppy play and tilt.

After running bad for that time I thought I was the worst poker player of all time, disgusted with myself, and pretty much thought I was an idiot. The next month I won back everything I lost plus more, so dont lose hope.

[Huhmare]

I think that is impossible in no limit.. Swings can be big, but they don't last that long

[teamdonkey]

there are statistical ways to answer your question. If you want, i can calculate the % chance you've been playing losing poker over that stretch vs just being unlucky, and also the probable range your actual winrate is in. PM me your BB/100, standard deviation/100, and actual number of hands.

[krazyace5]

PM sent, thanks

Here is my chart, I did drop down in limits during this run also.

[image][/image]

[Kyriefurro]

This is not a 30k hand downswing. This is a 4500 hand downswing, followed by a 4500 hand upturn, followed by.....you get the picture. Yes, you've gone 30k hands without fully recovering from you negative swings, but that's not the same thing as running bad for 30k consecutive hands.

Oh yeah, you're only down about 8 buy-ins. That's bad, but the end of the world. If it makes you feel any better, I dropped 23 buy-ins (at multiple levels cause I kept dropping down) in a 10 day stretch in November. 25k hands...and yes, I played like crap.

The good news is that I've completely recovered and after taking a lot of time to study and learn from my mistakes, I play a much stronger game now.

So hang in there. Study and learn. Things will turn....eventually.