#1
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Swing State prediction contest
Somebody was going to do this, so I figured it might as well be me.
These are the 19 states that are still in contention, according to RealClearPolitics. The electoral vote counts are included in parenthesis. RCP assumes that 149 electoral votes are solid for Kerry, and 191 for Bush, so if you're trying to engineer a result for your favorite candidate, you can work from there. There will be no prize for the contest, however I'll be happy to tally the results once the outcomes are certified in each state. The contest will be scored as follows: 1. Number of states picked correctly 2. Number of states picked correctly, weighted by Electoral votes 3. +/- differential in overall Electoral Vote prediction 4. +/- differential in Popular Vote predicton Entries must be submitted by Sunday at 5 PM Central Time or I won't count them. Have fun. AR (6) CO (9) IA (7) FL (27) HI (4) ME (4) MN (10) MI (17) MO (11) NH (4) NJ (15) NM (5) NV (5) OH (20) OR (7) PA (21) WV (5) WA (11) WI (10) Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Electoral Result: I've included my predictions below. ==== AR (6) - Kerry CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Bush Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.6 Electoral Result: Kerry 275, Bush 263. |
#2
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush IA (7) Bush FL (27) Bush HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Kerry NV (5) Bush OH (20) Bush OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Bush Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%) Electoral Result: Bush 291 Kerry 247 Flame on. |
#3
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Kerry IA (7) Bush FL (27) Bush HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Bush NV (5) Bush OH (20) Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Kerry Kerry 281 Bush 257 Bush by .1% in the popular vote |
#4
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Kerry HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +2.5 Electoral Result: Kerry 312, Bush 226. |
#5
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR B
CO B IA B FL B HI K ME K MN K MI K MO B NH B NV B OH B OR K PA K WV B WA K WI B Bush 295 Kerry 243 Popular vate +.6 Bush |
#6
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Bush MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Bush 269 Kerry 269 Popular Vote: Kerry +0.0 Edit: Does this seem THAT unrealistic? Lori |
#7
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
[ QUOTE ]
Does this seem THAT unrealistic? [/ QUOTE ] It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry. While you are all at it, how about a Senate prediction? Count Jeffords as a Democrat for this exercise. Current make-up in the Senate is Republican 51 to 49. |
#8
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
sadly the looks of ir right now is the bad guys look to gain a few seats in the senate
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#9
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.
Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Lori |
#10
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
[ QUOTE ]
It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry. Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Lori [/ QUOTE ] I like the way you had it. Some earlier predictors had Kerry picking up AR, which would be a bit of a surprise. My surprise pick is that I will blind-side Kerry by picking up MI. |
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