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#1
12-10-2005, 01:38 AM
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leakcheck hand
A hand played by someone else here.
Party 2/4, table full lof loose passive fish that like to play a single big card if its suited, any pp, etc. Two limpers and hero holds K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="red">hero raises</font> a strong hand in this situation for value. Button coldcalls, big blind calls, and both limpers call. flop is T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] bb checks, limper 1 checks, <font color="red">limper 2 bets, hero raises</font> in order to increase his chances of winning a now large pot. Raising may clean up outs by getting us HU, puts pressure on the flop bettor, and gives us a bluffing opportunity on the turn. two folds and limper 2 calls. turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain checks, <font color="red">hero bets</font>. Villain may have already given up, and if he calls then we still have outs to improve. villain calls. river:J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain checks, <font color="red">hero bets</font> for value with what is probably the best hand. comments on all streets appreciated. 
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#5
12-11-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: leakcheck hand
Unless the bettor has a propensity to fold, I don't like the turn bet and I really don't like the flop raise. Unless there's some chance we have the best hand (and I don't think there is) I don't think putting in an extra bet is worth it to "clean up outs". You need them to fold hands like AJ or K5 or Qx to clean up outs, and have the flop bettor not have you crushed (so something like AT), and not get three-bet. The biggest problem there is that most of the time the players behind you just don't have those hands, and you're putting in an extra bet with an equity deficit.
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#6
12-12-2005, 12:49 AM
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Re: leakcheck hand
Has someone done or can document the math for the free card play here? I've been making this raise with the overs/inside SD/ backdoor flush draw occasionaly, and I wonder to myself often if its worth it.... that is, worth it if we assume I don't get 3 bet on flop or donked into on turn. If guy donks into me on river when I have made hand from free card play, that would be another area of mathematical interest.
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#7
12-12-2005, 02:35 AM
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Re: leakcheck hand
Hey Damaniac,
I think that you are thinking about the right things... but: 1. There is a chance we have the best hand since the flop has some straight draws. 2. We can win this hand by folding our opponent. 3. A free card would be nice. 4. Our equity is pretty good anyway. I agree that "cleaning up outs" is WAY WAY overused as an excuse to raise flop in mediumish pots like this one. If you actually do the math, most of the time you'll find that you only clean an out, hit it, and win the hand about 2% of the time. That 2% DOES matter, it just is never a good enough reason on its own to raise.
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#8
12-12-2005, 02:51 AM
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Re: leakcheck hand
[ QUOTE ]
1. There is a chance we have the best hand since the flop has some straight draws. [/ QUOTE ] Well the straight draw would be KJ/QJ/J8/J7. If you plug those in with a lot of possible top pair/middle pair/lower PP combos (all I can really think of), we have a decent deficit (it was around 10% or so I think, but who knows what this guy's range is). Anyway though if he bets his draws he probably bets most of his top/mid pair hands here, and even if he bets his top/mid pairs hands, it is no guaruntee that he'd bet all his draws, especially the weaker ones. [ QUOTE ] 2. We can win this hand by folding our opponent. [/ QUOTE ] Er, given an unknown at 2/4 I'd be surprised if he fold top/middle pair here. Maybe a lower PP. He isn't folding a draw before the river most likely. There is something there, but I'd like a bit of a read first. [ QUOTE ] 3. A free card would be nice. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed, and I bet we get one a lot here, so this is a really good reason. I often wonder how one looks at how often you need to get a free card compared to your equity to make it right. I realize the equation isn't that simple necessarily, but they have to have some relation. [ QUOTE ] 4. Our equity is pretty good anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but this isn't a great reason. This just mitigates the times we're behind. It's like raising the turn with a flush draw or something, noting that if you get called, you have a lot of outs anyway. And you certainly do, but if the other guy isn't going to fold some % of the time (or will have a worse hand), it's still a -EV play. Same here. If we don't have the best hand x% of the time or set up a fold on a later street (that we want) x% of the time, saying we're not that far behind the bettor doesn't matter that much. I don't hate it or anything, I'm just not sure it's the optimal play without reads. At 6-max I do this all the time though, I just wonder about 2/4.
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#9
12-12-2005, 01:02 AM
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Re: leakcheck hand
I think I'd like it more if your read on the flop bettor is that he's the type to bet draws aggressively, and is known to fold decent hands when faced with aggression. If the bettor has something like QJ, you have him beat, and can fold out medium pairs and hands like Q9, A5, Ax, etc. When you continue with a semibluff on the turn you give him a chance to fold if he has something like JT or T8.
But as a loose passive player, he will call down with his pair and your semibluff attempts will not work out for you. By raising the flop, you lose equity when you put in extra bets with a hand that is behind and will not gain you much when you hit a K (minus the times the bettor has KT/K9), Q, or a J (another tainted out card). In this hand, you can call the flop and see if the limpers call. If a Q comes, you can raise the turn, or even wait until the river if you think you will make more money that way.
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#10
12-12-2005, 01:37 AM
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Re: leakcheck hand
FWIW, I don't ususally make this flop raise and this turn bet. I tend to just do one or the other.
This hand was played by a noted poker authority (see second hand listed), and is used as an example of places where we are leaking money. My aggression's all messed up these days though, so I couldn't figure out if I'm nuts or if he is. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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