Another 77 hand

[Sintax]

Fold to the flop raise. This is like the hand on pg 187 of SSH, but a lot worse for you. You are getting 5:1 on your call, but your equity is probably lower than 20%. In the books example the equity for an overpair was 25% and that was TT (much less overs then 77) and only against a single bet.

Pass.

[brettbrettr]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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Umm, considering this looks like a free showdown/not putting any more money in this pot type hand, this is the real W. Deranged. This is, like, his favorite play ever.

[QTip]

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Fold to the flop raise. This is like the hand on pg 187 of SSH, but a lot worse for you. You are getting 5:1 on your call, but your equity is probably lower than 20%. In the books example the equity for an overpair was 25% and that was TT (much less overs then 77) and only against a single bet.

Pass.

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Perhaps you're missing the gutshot and the fact that the TAG isn't proud of his hand.

[QTip]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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Umm, considering this looks like a free showdown/not putting any more money in this pot type hand, this is the real W. Deranged. This is, like, his favorite play ever.

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How can we not call a 3 bet? Which is why I'm not really sure I like the turn raise.

[W. Deranged]

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Yep.

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What happened to the real W. Deranged?

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I had been up for 36 straight hours when I wrote this having decided to pre-game the Harvard-Yale tailgate with 12 mid-night hours at Foxwoods...

As for the hand in question:

1. I see no reason to raise pre-flop given your reads. Raising often has the effect of getting this hand 4-handed, which is probably the worst position to be in, particularly because you use leverage on the flop being the last aggressor.

2. With no one left to act behind you except the SB, raising the flop is not good either. Waiting until the turn to put in a raise, particularly because you're in position and have a chance to shut out SB on the next street, seems much better to me. Three-betting opens you up to a cap which not only may be costing you money but also confuses the hand, as a taggish type like UTG+2 may be competent enough to cap a big flush draw or something here for value.

3. Turn raise is, as Brett notes, way up there on my list of favorite plays... We are in perfect position to take a free showdown, charge the maximum against flush and straight draws, possibly fold out hands like A6 that we probably don't want around, and maybe even encourage SB or UTG+2 to fold a better hand.

The salient question is why should we be raising when we probably can't fold to a three-bet. Here's my reasoning:

1. It is very important to realize that MP2 called two cold on the flop and called the turn. He is very loose here, but his action seems to suggest that it's pretty likely that he has either a flush draw, and open-ended draw, or at least something like a pair and a gutshot.

2. If there is any flush draw on the table, two of our outs are killed. If anyone has a 5 (quite likely), two of our outs are killed (though one is repeated). If anyone else has a 7, we lose one 7 out and halve our gutshot outs.

3. Because of the above, a bunch of our outs have pretty heavy reverse-implied odds, and require even further discounting. Let's say that we hit a 7 on the river and it goes two checks to MP2 who bets. Our call there is really extremely thin even if we decide to make it. What if the river is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? And so on...

My point is that what look like 6 outs here are probably only 3.5 on average. With discounting because of the reverse implieds, counting our draw as really a 3 out draw I think is safest. If, say, SB folds, UTG+2 three-bets, MP2 calls, we'd be getting something like 13-1 on our money, and so a call there is negative EV. But, some of the time we'd be getting three-bet, another player will drop or something and we can fold.

[Nick C]

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My point is that what look like 6 outs here are probably only 3.5 on average. With discounting because of the reverse implieds, counting our draw as really a 3 out draw I think is safest. If, say, SB folds, UTG+2 three-bets, MP2 calls, we'd be getting something like 13-1 on our money, and so a call there is negative EV. But, some of the time we'd be getting three-bet, another player will drop or something and we can fold.

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FWIW, if we think there's a good chance we're getting 3-bet, I think we should just call.

It's expensive to invest two bets to decide we don't quite have the odds to call one more.

Just because we can fold to a 3-bet (if we can) doesn't mean our outs are worthless.

[Nick C]

I doubt I would have made the turn raise, but I think I like it. It's entirely possible you're ahead here, and if UTG+2 happens to fold 88/99, then that's great (so long as you're beating the other players).

There is the question of what you're representing. A slowplayed set, I guess (or maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

I might have 3-bet the flop. Or I might've cold-called, like you did. To be honest, I would have been lost during this hand.

[QTip]

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I doubt I would have made the turn raise, but I think I like it. It's entirely possible you're ahead here, and if UTG+2 happens to fold 88/99, then that's great (so long as you're beating the other players).

There is the question of what you're representing. A slowplayed set, I guess (or maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

I might have 3-bet the flop. Or I might've cold-called, like you did. To be honest, I would have been lost during this hand.

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I've decided I don't like the turn raise.

My thoughts (flame away if necessary):

We can see the river and the river action action last for only 1 BB. As it stands, we may end up paying 3 BBs on this turn (With 3 outs to the nuts, folding that turn is not in my book, especially if sb and/or MP are still in the hand, of course.)

Even if we do raise and no one three bets, can we call a river donk bet, even if it's not a scare card?

Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead. However, the more I look at TAG's turn bet, the more I think we may be behind. He's just led into 2 people that called 2 cold on the flop. Even if he is semi-bluffing with 2 dimaonds (assuming he didn't have something like KTs or maybe KJs), he certainly will not fold that. I think we're risking 2 or 3 BBs here on the turn with a hand that is still vunerable (at best) in a multiway pot.

I want to keep it cheap at this point.

[jason_t]

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Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead.

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I have overlay from the LPP player too.

[QTip]

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Yes, there's a decent chance we're ahead.

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I have overlay from the LPP player too.

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Just so you know: You're PF explanation is off in that you say you're MP2 and the LPP is MP1. Didn't even notice the first time around.

Anyway, really, I've never understood the exact meaning of "overlay" and "parlay" in hand discussion contexts. So, I'm not 100% what you're saying here.

However, my assumption is that you mean his money pads the pot in that he could be calling with bottom pair or some such non-sense. Before I go on, is this what you're saying?